IonQ Just Raised Its 2026 Revenue Outlook by About 60%. Most of the Raise Isn't Quantum Computing.

IonQ (IONQ +2.40%) raised its full-year revenue outlook by about 60% this morning, to a range of $450 million to $460 million. A month ago, the quantum computing company expected $280 million to $290 million.Shares jumped on the news, trading near $44 as of this writing.But most of that new revenue isn't quantum computing. The updated outlook is IonQ's first to include SkyWater Technology, the chip foundry it finished buying on July 31 -- and on the numbers IonQ has published, the foundry appears to account for the bulk of the increase. Image source: Getty Images. A different kind of raiseIonQ has now raised its 2026 revenue guidance three times this year, and the first two raises came from the quantum business beating its own forecasts. February's initial guidance called for $225 million to $245 million. In May, after first-quarter revenue of $64.7 million topped the guided range, the outlook moved to $260 million to $270 million. And in early August, after second-quarter revenue reached $80.1 million, up 287% year over year, the range rose to $280 million to $290 million -- an outlook that, the company noted, did "not reflect any contribution from the SkyWater acquisition."This morning's raise is different, and far bigger. The new range simply folds SkyWater in from the July 31 closing date through the end of the year, minus an estimate of the chips the foundry was already selling to IonQ. Midpoint to midpoint, the step up is about $170 million.The foundry could cover the whole raiseIonQ didn't break out how much of that $170 million comes from SkyWater. But the foundry's own recent results suggest it could account for the entire step up by itself.SkyWater's revenue reached $317.1 million over the first half of its fiscal 2026 -- more than double the year-earlier figure. Five months at that pace comes to about $264 million. Even after subtracting the intercompany piece (IonQ's spending with SkyWater ran near $25 million in the second quarter), the foundry's implied five-month contribution runs well past $170 million.In short, the raise arguably looks conservative measured against SkyWater's recent pace. Whatever quantum growth sits inside the new range, chip manufacturing likely makes up most of the increase.Management isn't hiding the mix."As we prepare to host our first joint Investor Day today, our updated full-year guidance highlights both the market traction of our quantum platform and the foundational manufacturing scale provided by SkyWater," CEO Niccolo de Masi said in the announcement.Of course, IonQ didn't buy SkyWater for its revenue. The January deal, a cash-and-stock agreement valuing the foundry at about $1.8 billion, was about securing the factory that makes IonQ's chips.The strategy showed up again this morning: IonQ unveiled Superion 256, its sixth-generation quantum computing platform, with chips fabricated at SkyWater and customer deliveries expected in 2027.Did the stock get cheaper today?IonQ came into today's session worth about $15.7 billion, about 55 times the midpoint of its August sales guidance. Against the new $455 million midpoint, today's roughly $17 billion market value comes to about 37 times guided sales. That looks like a big discount.However, that blended sales multiple mixes two very different businesses, and I don't think it says much about the stock's valuation. IonQ itself told investors what foundry revenue is worth, agreeing in January to pay about 4 times the foundry's fiscal 2025 sales of roughly $440 million.ExpandNYSE: IONQIonQPremium FeatureMoneyball Superscore63/100Today's Change(2.40%) $0.95Current Price$40.47Key Data PointsMarket Cap$16BMarket cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.Day's Range$39.45 - $44.4352wk Range$25.89 - $84.64Volume40.2MAvg Vol21.2MGross Margin-3317.96%Value the foundry at that $1.8 billion price, and about $15 billion of IonQ's market value still rests on the quantum platform's $285 million of guided sales, or about 53 times sales. Run the same math on Friday's close, and the quantum platform traded at about 49 times sales before the announcement. On that consistent basis, the quantum business got about 9% more expensive this morning, without a new quantum number behind the move.And IonQ remains deeply unprofitable. Its second-quarter non-GAAP (adjusted) EBITDA loss reached $120.3 million, versus a $36.5 million loss a year earlier. The loss was bigger than the quarter's entire revenue.The tech company hosts its first joint investor day with SkyWater today, and the combined business arguably has a bigger story to tell. But this morning's raise is mostly a business investors have known about since January. And the quantum platform, where nearly all of the market value sits, got no new guidance of its own today. The August midpoint of $285 million still stands, at a higher sales multiple.So, did the guidance raise make the growth stock a better buy? I don't think so. I would avoid buying shares at this price.