Has there been a recent breakthrough in experimental quantum computing that makes commercial applications possible within 10 years?

Quantum Computing is part of Stack Overflow’s open communities: specialist spaces where curiosity is welcome, knowledge is shared freely, and the best answers rise to the top. Stack Overflow for Teams is now called Stack Internal. Bring the best of human thought and AI automation together at your work. Bring the best of human thought and AI automation together at your work. Learn more Bring the best of human thought and AI automation together at your work. I'm struggling to reconcile the current experimental status of quantum error correction with the confidence expressed in recent quantum computing roadmaps. My understanding is that we are still establishing the basic ingredients of scalable logical computation. For example, Google’s Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold demonstrates improving a logical memory by increasing code distance. This is a significant result, but there is a substantial gap between the demonstration and running useful algorithms on hundreds or thousands of logical qubits with millions to billions of toffoli gates. Nevertheless, several prominent announcements suggest confidence in dramatic progress over the next 5-10 years: Google: "We are now increasingly confident that commercially relevant quantum computers based on superconducting technology will become available by the end of this decade." - Hartmut Neven IBM: Its roadmap targets 200 logical qubits capable of running 100 million gates in 2029, followed by 2,000 logical qubits and one billion gates in 2033+. DARPA: "In fact, it now seems likely that someone will build a utility-scale quantum computer by 2033" - Micah Stoutimore Has something significant happened in quantum computer engineering that explains this confidence that I may have missed? Thanks for contributing an answer to Quantum Computing Stack Exchange! Use MathJax to format equations. MathJax reference. To learn more, see our tips on writing great answers. By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service and acknowledge you have read our privacy policy. To subscribe to this RSS feed, copy and paste this URL into your RSS reader. This comment attacks a person or group. Learn more in our Abusive behavior policy. This comment is rude or condescending. Learn more in our Code of Conduct. A problem not listed above. Try to be as specific as possible. You'll need to complete a few actions and gain 15 reputation points before being able to upvote. Upvoting indicates when questions and answers are useful. What's reputation and how do I get it? Instead, you can save this post to reference later. Site design / logo © 2026 Stack Exchange Inc; user contributions licensed under CC BY-SA . rev 2026.9.15.