Sugar Prices Jump as Crude Oil Surges

AAPL TSLA AMZN META AMD NVDA PEP COST ADBE GOOG AMGN HON INTC INTU NFLX ADP SBUX MRNA AAPL TSLA AMZN META AMD NVDA PEP COST ADBE GOOG AMGN HON INTC INTU NFLX ADP SBUX MRNA AAPL TSLA AMZN META AMD NVDA PEP COST ADBE GOOG AMGN HON INTC INTU NFLX ADP SBUX MRNA Stocks Sugar Prices Jump as Crude Oil Surges March 09, 2026 — 02:40 pm EDT Written by Rich Asplund for Barchart-> May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) is up +0.47 (+3.33%), and May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) is up +5.70 (+1.38%).Sugar prices continued higher today on the fresh surge in oil prices seen after Israel bombed 30 oil depots in Iran. The rally in oil prices benefits ethanol prices, encouraging the world's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production rather than sugar, thereby curbing sugar supplies. Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity analysis. On February 12, sugar prices plunged to 5.25-year nearest-futures lows on concern that a global sugar surplus will persist. On February 11, analysts from sugar trader Czarnikow said they expect a global sugar surplus of 3.4 MMT in the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26. Also, Green Pool Commodity Specialists said on January 29 that they expect a 2.74 MMT global sugar surplus for 2025/26 and a 156,000 MT surplus for 2026/27. Meanwhile, StoneX said February 13 that it expects a global sugar surplus of 2.9 MMT in 2025/26.The International Sugar Organization (ISO) on February 27 forecasted a +1.22 MMT (million metric ton) sugar surplus in 2025-26, below an earlier projection of +1.63 AMMT. That follows a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25. ISO said the surplus is being driven by increased sugar production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. ISO is forecasting a +3.0% y/y rise in global sugar production to 181.3 million MMT in 2025-26. Signs of lower sugar output in Brazil are supportive of sugar prices, after Unica on February 18 reported that sugar production in Brazil's Center-South in the second half of January fell by -36% y/y to only 5,000 MT. However, cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through January is up by +0.9% y/y to 40.24 MMT. Also, the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rose to 50.74% in 2025/26 from 48.14% in 2024/25.The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) reported on March 6 that India's 2025-26 sugar output from Oct 1-Feb 28 was up +12% y/y to 24.75 MMT. Last Wednesday, the ISMA projected India's 2025/26 sugar production at 29.3 MMT, up 12% y/y, below an earlier projection of 30.95 MMT. The ISMA also cut its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India to 3.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which may allow India to boost its sugar exports. India is the world's second-largest sugar producer. Sugar prices are being undercut amid prospects of higher Indian sugar exports. On February 13, India's government approved an additional 500,000 MT of sugar for export for the 2025/26 season, on top of the 1.5 MMT approved in November. India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies.The outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand is bearish for prices.

The Thai Sugar Millers Corp on October 1 projected that Thailand's 2025/26 sugar crop will increase by +5% y/y to 10.5 MMT. Thailand is the world's third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter.The USDA, in its bi-annual report released on December 16, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would climb +4.6% y/y to a record 189.318 MMT and that global 2025/26 human sugar consumption would increase +1.4% y/y to a record 177.921 MMT. The USDA also forecast that 2025/26 global sugar ending stocks would fall by -2.9% y/y to 41.188 MMT. The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production would rise by 2.3% y/y to a record 44.7 MMT. FAS also predicted that India's 2025/26 sugar production would increase by 25% y/y to 35.25 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage. In addition, FAS predicted that Thailand's 2025/26 sugar production will increase by +2% y/y to 10.25 MMT. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. More news from Barchart There’s Nothing Sweet About This Sugar: How Much Lower Will Prices Go? Will Sugar’s Bearish Trend End in 2026? Soft Commodities in Q4 and 2025- What are the Prospects for Q1 2026 and Beyond?

The Sweet Case for Buying Sugar Futures in 2026 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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