Fill Up Your Car, Things Could Get Worse

Eugenio Catone5.97K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(12min)Comments(4)SummaryThe intensifying U.S.-Iran conflict has driven oil above $100/barrel, with gasoline prices lagging but poised to spike toward $3.50–$3.80/gallon, or higher if escalation persists.Wholesale gasoline prices have surged faster than retail, creating an unprecedented gap; retail prices are likely to catch up rapidly if the conflict endures.Rising gasoline prices historically drive higher Core CPI, threatening margins, fueling inflation, and undermining stock market valuations—risks the market appears to be underestimating.With futures now pricing in fewer rate cuts and the job market weakening, I advocate a risk-off stance as stagflation risks mount amid ongoing supply chain disruption.

Images By Tang Ming Tung/DigitalVision via Getty Images The war in Iran is intensifying, and energy prices are getting out of control. Before the war broke out, oil (CL1:COM) was traded at ~65 per barrel, now we are well-above the $100This article was written byEugenio Catone5.97K FollowersFollowPassionate about geopolitics and macroeconomics, I express my opinion through my articles and enjoy engaging with all of you. I also write about companies that catch my attention, particularly those in my portfolio. For me, Seeking Alpha is a way to expand and share my knowledge.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.