An accountant won a big jackpot on Kalshi by betting against DOGE

In Brief Posted: 11:36 AM PST · February 25, 2026 Image Credits:Francis Chung/Politico/Bloomberg / Getty Images Julie Bort An accountant won a big jackpot on Kalshi by betting against DOGE When Alan Cole saw Elon Musk fans eagerly bidding up a contract on the prediction market Kalshi that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) could effectively reduce federal spending in a year, he knew he had to take the bet, according to a story about Cole’s winnings in the Wall Street Journal. If Cole, an international tax accountant, knew anything in life it was this: federal spending couldn’t be quickly whacked, he told the WSJ. Even if DOGE nixed some federal contracts and laid off workers (which it did), plenty of remaining obligations and the skyrocketing federal debt would remain. So, he wagered his entire life savings — over $342,000 — to take the counter bet that the U.S. federal budget wouldn’t insta-shrink. He slowly amassed 3% of a Kalshi prediction market that had grown to $12 million (making a few hedging bets along the way), he told the WSJ. When the government released the 2025 year-end spending report on February 20, showing increases compared to 2024, Cole walked away with $470,300 and a handsome $128,000 profit. Topics doge, Fintech, Government & Policy, Kalshi, TC October 13-15 San Francisco, CA Save up to $680 on your pass before February 27.Meet investors. Discover your next portfolio company. Hear from 250+ tech leaders, dive into 200+ sessions, and explore 300+ startups building what’s next. Don’t miss these one-time savings. REGISTER NOW Newsletters See More Subscribe for the industry’s biggest tech news TechCrunch Daily News Every weekday and Sunday, you can get the best of TechCrunch’s coverage. TechCrunch Mobility TechCrunch Mobility is your destination for transportation news and insight.

Startups Weekly Startups are the core of TechCrunch, so get our best coverage delivered weekly. StrictlyVC Provides movers and shakers with the info they need to start their day. No newsletters selected. Subscribe By submitting your email, you agree to our Terms and Privacy Notice.

Related Apps Kalshi fined a MrBeast editor for insider trading on markets related to the YouTube star Amanda Silberling 3 hours ago Startups More startups are hitting $10M ARR in 3 months than ever before Julie Bort 1 day ago AI A Meta AI security researcher said an OpenClaw agent ran amok on her inbox Julie Bort 2 days ago Latest in Fintech Venture Is crypto growing up? Tether risk, Stripe’s stablecoin play, and the GENIUS Act explained Rebecca Bellan Theresa Loconsolo 1 hour ago In Brief An accountant won a big jackpot on Kalshi by betting against DOGE Julie Bort 2 hours ago TechCrunch Disrupt 2026 3 days left: Save up to $680 on your TechCrunch Disrupt 2026 ticket TechCrunch Events 7 hours ago