Woodside Energy : Hedges Limit LNG Upside

Ricardo Fernandez3.45K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(7min)CommentsSummaryI rate Woodside Energy (WDS) a buy, driven by higher-for-longer LNG and oil prices amid ongoing Middle East disruptions.WDS's conservative strategy limits near-term upside, with 75% of LNG contracted through 2028 at ~$11/BTU, but spot exposure benefits from elevated prices.My out-of-consensus forecast sees 2026 EBITDA at $11bn and FCF over $4bn, supporting dividends, debt reduction, and potential reinvestment.Valuation offers 60% upside to YE27 on my aggressive scenario, with potential for multiple expansion as WDS gains premium pricing.

Getty Images Introduction When the Iran war or conflict began, I, like many investors, at first thought and hoped it would be a weekend event, which was perhaps naive. I then began to restructure the portfolio to a first hedge risk with an oilThis article was written byRicardo Fernandez3.45K FollowersFollowI have more that 35 years of experience in the investment field having worked as a sell & buy side analyst and portfolio manger for debt and equity funds. I am currently managing a high yield Latam bond fund.My goal, as a Seeking Alpha contributor, is to provide a fundamental view and analysis of companies and funds in a streamlined version of institutional research. The operating and financial forecast, whether my own or based on consensus, drives the valuation and ultimate rating. I like numbers (financial statements) and use words to explain there meaning and potential consequences.For the most part, my selection choices reflect what I believe can offer long term potential and I frequently take positions in many ideas for my personal account.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of VG, WDS, CNR either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.