Why And When I Stopped Following Ray Dalio's All-Weather Portfolio

Envision ResearchInvesting Group LeaderFollow5ShareSavePlay(11min)Comments(2)SummaryI have pivoted away from Ray Dalio’s All-Weather Portfolio (AWP) since 2020 due to concerns over treasury allocations.The market conditions we face now are vastly different compared to those under which the AWP was conceived.Treasuries now offer less compelling risk/return, with real yields negative and global demand for US debt declining.Current macro conditions—higher equity valuations and a shifting monetary order—undermine the original AWP allocation logic.I now favor a barbell strategy, emphasizing the two extremes of the risk curve and avoiding the middle spectrum.This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Envision Early Retirement. Learn More » Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images Why I pivoted away from Dalio’s AWP around 2020 For decades, we have managed our family portfolios following Ray Dalio’s AWP allocation (aka, All-Weather Portfolio) and have been generously rewarded by this disciplined template. In case you’re unfamiliar withThis article was written byEnvision Research20.19K FollowersFollowEnvision Research, aka Lucas Ma, has over 20+ years of investment experience and holds a Masters with in Quantitative Investment and a PhD in Mechanical Engineering with a focus on renewable energy, both from Stanford University. He also has 30+ years of hands-on experience in high-tech R&D and consulting, housing sector, credit sector, and actual portfolio management.He leads the investing group Envision Early Retirement along with Sensor Unlimited where they offer proven solutions to generate both high income and high growth with isolated risks through dynamic asset allocation. Features include: two model portfolios - one for short-term survival/withdrawal and one for aggressive long-term growth, direct access via chat to discuss ideas, monthly updates on all holdings, tax discussions, and ticker critiques by request.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of ALL TICKERS IN THE AGP either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.