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Waste Connections: Waiting For A Better Entry Point Amid Iran Inflation Risks

Seeking Alpha
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⚡ Quantum Brief
The North American waste management leader projects double-digit adjusted free cash flow growth in 2026, driven by core price hikes, controlled costs, and strategic acquisitions boosting profitability. Current valuation sits near intrinsic value amid macroeconomic pressures, prompting analysts to recommend holding rather than buying, despite the company’s strong market position and operational resilience. Debt metrics remain stable with leverage at 2.75x EBITDA, within target ranges, supported by well-structured maturities and a recent $600M bond issuance at a 4.8% interest rate. Geopolitical tensions, particularly Iran-related inflation risks, pose downside threats to earnings and stock performance, compounding broader economic slowdown concerns for the sector. While fundamentals stay robust, investors are advised to await a more favorable entry point as external risks outweigh immediate upside potential.
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IWA Research2.69K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(10min)CommentsSummaryWaste Connections remains a hold, trading near intrinsic value given the current macro pressure.WCN projects double-digit adj. FCF growth in 2026, driven by core price increases, cost moderation, and accretive acquisitions.Leverage is at 2.75x EBITDA, within the target range, with well-laddered debt maturities and recent $600M notes issued at 4.8%.Macro risks, including economic slowdown and inflation from geopolitical tensions, could pressure WCN's business and stock price.

Getty Images Introduction Back when I first covered Waste Connections (WCN), I highlighted its strong position as one of North America's leading waste collection service providers, although their premium valuation limited the attractiveness of an entry. Although the company’sThis article was written byIWA Research2.69K FollowersFollowI've been researching companies in-depth for over a decade, from commodities like oil, natural gas, gold and copper to tech like Google or Nokia and many emerging market stocks, which I believe could help me provide useful content for readers. After writing my own blog for about 3 years, I decided to switch to a value investing-focused YouTube channel, where I researched hundreds of different companies so far. I would say my favorite type of company to cover are metals and mining stocks, but I am comfortable with several other industries, such as consumer discretionary/staples, REITs and utilities.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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