The U.S.-Iran War: Position For Ground Invasion

Damir Tokic13.41K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(8min)Comment(1)SummaryThe negotiations between the US and Iran are likely to fail, and the US will be forced to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force, with a ground invasion.The stock market is already frontrunning the possible end of the war, expecting the US operation to succeed.However, stagflation is still the base case, as oil prices are likely to remain high even after Hormuz reopens, thus any bounce in the stock market will likely be short-lived. Rawf8/iStock via Getty Images Stagflation Risks Rising The Iran war is clearly unsustainable. If it continues for another 4-5 weeks, the global economy will face a major stagflationary shock, which includes the collapse of global stock markets. The firstThis article was written byDamir Tokic13.41K FollowersFollowCommodity Trading Adviser (CTA), member of National Futures Association. Professor of Finance, research on Global-macro issues. Editor-in-Chief, Journal of Corporate Accounting and Finance.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.