Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes - March 3, 2026

James Picerno6.93K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(9min)CommentsSummaryThe Iran war is roiling financial markets, but the impact on long-term expected returns will likely be limited.Even in the worst-case scenario, the methodology outlined below for developing performance estimates is relatively immune to short-term events.The current 7.3% annualized estimate for GMI is unchanged from the previous update and remains well below the trailing 10.2% annualized return that GMI has generated over the past decade. ToucanStudios/E+ via Getty Images The Iran war is roiling financial markets, but the impact on long-term expected returns will likely be limited. Even in the worst-case scenario, the methodology outlined below for developing performance estimates is relatively immune to short-term events.This article was written byJames Picerno6.93K FollowersFollowJames Picerno is the director of analytics at The Milwaukee Co., a wealth manager that is the adviser to The Brinsmere Funds, a pair of global asset allocation ETFs. He also edits CapitalSpectator.com and The US Business Cycle Research Report (CapitalSpectator.com/premium-research). He is the author of three books, including "Quantitative Investment Portfolio Analytics In R: An Introduction To R For Modeling Portfolio Risk and Return." Previously he was a financial journalist at Bloomberg and before that at Dow Jones.