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Subprime Crisis 2.0: Will Private Credit Be The Trigger?

Seeking Alpha
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⚡ Quantum Brief
Fed rate hike odds surged to 52% by year-end as Brent crude hit $110, reigniting inflation fears and pressuring markets after five consecutive weekly losses. The S&P 500 fell 9% from January’s peak, nearing correction territory at ~6,370, with broad-based selling across all sectors except energy. Subprime loan originations hit $600 billion in 2026, echoing 2006 levels and raising concerns over private credit risks amid tightening financial conditions. Markets remained oversold despite brief optimism from geopolitical talks, as persistent selling erased early-week gains and deepened investor caution. Analysts warn private credit excesses could trigger systemic risks, mirroring the 2008 crisis, as leveraged loans and weak underwriting standards proliferate.
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Lance Roberts34.02K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(26min)Comments(4)SummaryFutures markets pushed the probability of a Fed rate hike by year-end to 52%, which is the first time it has crossed the 50% threshold, as Brent topped $110 and inflation fears intensified.The S&P 500 closed Friday at ~6,370, completing a fifth consecutive weekly loss and putting the index 9.0% below January’s all-time high of 7,002, which is on the doorstep of an official correction.The Mortgage Bankers Association later estimated that subprime originations reached $600 billion in 2006 alone, up from roughly $160 billion in 2001.Last week’s continued selling pressure pushed every market and sector, except for Energy, again, back into very oversold territory. gorodenkoff/iStock via Getty Images Market Brief - A Tough Market Week This past week was another disappointing one. Markets opened the week surging after President Trump posted on Truth Social that U.S.-Iran talks had been “very good andThis article was written byLance Roberts34.02K FollowersFollowAfter having been in the investing world for more than 25 years from private banking and investment management to private and venture capital; I have pretty much "been there and done that" at one point or another. I am currently a partner at RIA Advisors in Houston, Texas. The majority of my time is spent analyzing, researching and writing commentary about investing, investor psychology and macro-views of the markets and the economy. My thoughts are not generally mainstream and are often contrarian in nature but I try an use a common sense approach, clear explanations and my “real world” experience in the process. I am a managing partner of RIA Pro, a weekly subscriber based-newsletter that is distributed to individual and professional investors nationwide. The newsletter covers economic, political and market topics as they relate to your money and life. I also write a daily blog which is read by thousands nationwide from individuals to professionals at www.realinvestmentadvice.com.

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