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The Strait Squeeze

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⚡ Quantum Brief
U.S. equity markets extended losses for a fourth consecutive week in March 2026 as Middle East tensions escalated, with Iran-related Strait of Hormuz disruptions driving energy inflation fears and pushing benchmark interest rates to eight-month highs. The Strait of Hormuz standstill created an uneasy equilibrium, with Brent crude surging 10% to $112/barrel while WTI held below $100, reigniting concerns over energy-driven inflation despite previous Fed dismissals of tariff-related price pressures. The Federal Reserve’s "hawkish hold" exacerbated market volatility, prompting traders to price in year-end rate hikes, further straining equities as the S&P 500 dropped 2.1% and gold plummeted 10%. Real estate equities, previously resilient amid rising rates, finally faltered despite positive M&A activity, including a REIT merger and successful IPO, signaling broader sector vulnerability to geopolitical and monetary pressures. The conflict’s prolonged uncertainty underscores systemic risks to global supply chains, with energy chokepoints and Fed policy missteps amplifying market instability across asset classes.
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Hoya CapitalInvesting Group LeaderFollow5ShareSavePlay(22min)CommentsSummaryU.S. equity markets fell for a fourth straight week, while interest rates jumped to eight-month highs, as continued turmoil in the Middle East rattled financial markets and revived inflation concerns.The third week of the Iran conflict settled into an uneasy equilibrium between escalation and de-escalation amid a continued standstill in the Strait of Hormuz, the key global energy chokepoint.The Federal Reserve - long bemoaning tariff-related inflation that failed to materialize - did little to calm markets, delivering a “hawkish hold” that pushed traders to price in rate hikes by year-end.The S&P 500 declined 2.1%, while gold prices plunged 10%. WTI Crude Oil managed to stay below the $100/barrel threshold, but global Brent crude surged 10% to over $112/barrel.Real estate equities - which had been holding their ground amid the recent resurgence in interest rates - finally came under pressure this week despite a wave of positive developments on the M&A front, including a successful IPO, a sizable REIT-to-REIT merger, and a handful of large-scale joint ventures.iREIT®+HOYA Capital members get exclusive access to our real-world portfolio. See all our investments here » Suphanat Khumsap/iStock via Getty Images Real Estate Weekly Outlook U.S. equity markets fell for a fourth straight week—while benchmark interest rates jumped to eight-month highs—as continued turmoil in the Middle East rattled financial markets and revived concerns about energy-driven inflation. TheThis article was written byHoya Capital36.52K FollowersFollowAlex Pettee is President and Director of Research and ETFs at Hoya Capital. Hoya manages institutional and individual portfolios of publicly traded real estate securities.Alex leads the investing group iREIT®+HOYA Capital. The service features a team of analysts focusing on real income-producing asset classes that offer the opportunity for reliable income, diversification, and inflation hedging. Learn More.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of RIET, HOMZ, IRET, ALL HOLDINGS IN THE IREIT+HOYA PORTFOLIOS either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Hoya Capital Research & Index Innovations ("Hoya Capital") is an affiliate of Hoya Capital Real Estate, a registered investment advisory firm based in Rowayton, Connecticut, that provides investment advisory services to ETFs, individuals, and institutions.

Hoya Capital Research & Index Innovations provides non-advisory services including market commentary, research, and index administration focused on publicly traded securities in the real estate industry. This published commentary is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing on this site nor any commentary published by Hoya Capital is intended to be investment, tax, or legal advice or an offer to buy or sell securities. This commentary is impersonal and should not be considered a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific individual, nor should it be viewed as a solicitation or offer for any advisory service offered by Hoya Capital Real Estate. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal adviser regarding your individual circumstances before investing. The views and opinions in all published commentary are as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Any market data quoted represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any historical trend illustrated herein will be repeated in the future, and there is no way to predict precisely when such a trend will begin. There is no guarantee that any outlook made in this commentary will be realized. Readers should understand that investing involves risk, and loss of principal is possible. Investments in real estate companies and/or housing industry companies involve unique risks, as do investments in ETFs. The information presented does not reflect the performance of any fund or other account managed or serviced by Hoya Capital Real Estate. An investor cannot invest directly in an index, and index performance does not reflect the deduction of any fees, expenses, or taxes.

Hoya Capital Real Estate and Hoya Capital Research & Index Innovations have no business relationship with any company discussed or mentioned and never receive compensation from any company discussed or mentioned.

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