Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile: Can The Momentum Continue? (Downgrade)

Ricardo Fernandez3.48K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(6min)CommentsSummarySociedad Química y Minera de Chile is downgraded to hold, reflecting long-term capped growth and strategic constraints from the Codelco JV.SQM's revenue and EPS are projected to double by 2026, driven by high LCE prices and a fertilizer segment rebound.Gross margins are expected to expand over 1000 bp, but Chilean sales taxes and regulatory risks limit upside.My 2026 price target for SQM is $106, but I prefer ALB long-term due to SQM's capped volumes and asset control loss post-2030. zhudifeng/iStock via Getty Images Introduction Lithium stocks have been on a tear since August 2025 when LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent) prices began to recuperate due to Chinese (CALT) mine stoppage and then gained further momentum when Zimbabwe stopped production (seeking battery integration), and now theThis article was written byRicardo Fernandez3.48K FollowersFollowI have more than 35 years of experience in the investment field, having worked as a sell & buy side analyst and portfolio manager for debt and equity funds. I am currently managing a high-yield Latam bond fund.My goal, as a Seeking Alpha contributor, is to provide a fundamental view and analysis of companies and funds in a streamlined version of institutional research. The operating and financial forecast, whether my own or based on consensus, drives the valuation and ultimate rating. I like numbers (financial statements) and use words to explain their meaning and potential consequences.For the most part, my selection choices reflect what I believe can offer long-term potential, and I frequently take positions in many ideas for my personal account.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of ALB either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.