The Rotation Trade Collapsed - Where To Hide Now?

Damir Tokic13.36K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(7min)Comments(2)SummaryThe rotation trade into US cyclicals/value collapsed, partially driven by an unfolding private credit crisis.The rotation trade in global stocks collapsed with a rising USD and the spike in oil price, driven by the war in Iran.An unfolding AI bubble burst makes it unlikely that funds flow back into tech.The safe place to hide is short-term US Treasury Bills, at least for now.Scott Heins/Getty Images News The macro context At the beginning of 2026, investors sold technology sector (XLK) and rotated into value and cyclical sectors. The macro thesis was that: The US economy would continue to grow in 2026 given 1) the This article was written byDamir Tokic13.36K FollowersFollowCommodity Trading Adviser (CTA), member of National Futures Association. Professor of Finance, research on Global-macro issues. Editor-in-Chief, Journal of Corporate Accounting and Finance.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of TBILLS either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.