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Rates Spark: Inflation Expectations On The March Again

Seeking Alpha
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⚡ Quantum Brief
Global financial markets show rising inflation expectations as US breakeven rates and swap spreads widen, signaling concerns over persistent price pressures despite easing oil prices and reduced risk asset volatility. President Trump’s recent statements amplified market uncertainty, compounding existing geopolitical tensions and creating a volatile backdrop for rate-sensitive instruments amid shifting monetary policy outlooks. Eurozone inflation fears push the 10-year swap rate toward 3%, reflecting broader regional pressure as central banks grapple with stubborn price growth and tightening financial conditions. Front-end breakevens and back-end swap spreads—key inflation gauges—are expanding, indicating investors are pricing in higher long-term inflation risks despite short-term stabilization in commodity markets. Analysts warn the trend could force central banks to maintain restrictive policies longer, risking economic slowdowns as borrowing costs rise and financial stress spreads across asset classes.
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ING Economic and Financial Analysis5.23K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(7min)CommentsSummaryPresident Trump's words from Monday continue to reverberate, but into a vacuum of ongoing conflict.The oil price has tamed, as has material risk asset angst. But US breakeven inflation and swap spreads are on the march wider. Not great.In the eurozone, the 10Y swap rate is heading for the 3% handle. Here too, a push from inflation expectations. Shutthiphong Chandaeng/iStock via Getty Images By Padhraic Garvey, CFA, Regional Head of Research, Americas; Michiel Tukker, Senior European Rates Strategist; and Benjamin Schroeder, Senior Rates Strategist Wider front-end breakevens and wider back-end swap spreads are both problem childs MondayThis article was written byING Economic and Financial Analysis5.23K FollowersFollowFrom Trump to trade, FX to Brexit, ING’s global economists have it covered. Go to ING.com/THINK to stay a step ahead. We’re sorry we can’t reply to individuals' comments.Content disclaimer: The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument.This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. For our full disclaimer please click here.

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