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Rates Spark: Continue To Play The End-Of-War Game

Seeking Alpha
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⚡ Quantum Brief
ING analysts project a likely resolution to the ongoing conflict, citing sufficient indicators despite current ceasefire uncertainty and stalled negotiations set to resume Saturday. The primary market impact will be steepening yield curves in developed economies, driven by divergent movements at both short- and long-term ends of bond markets. Led by Padhraic Garvey (Americas), Benjamin Schroeder, and Michiel Tukker (UK/Eurozone), the team frames this as a "base case" scenario, emphasizing structural economic shifts post-conflict. Investors are advised to position for rate volatility, with the steepening trend reflecting expectations of easing short-term rates alongside rising long-term inflation or growth assumptions. The analysis stops short of specific trade recommendations, framing the outlook as macroeconomic guidance rather than direct investment advice.
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ING Economic and Financial Analysis5.32K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(6min)CommentsSummaryThere is lots of noise out there about the ceasefire, and indeed something of a vacuum until negotiations actually begin on Saturday.But we continue to see enough to distill an outcome that ultimately sees the war conclude.The main bond market outcome is an extrapolation of a steepening impulse from both ends of developed market curves. HUNG CHIN LIU/iStock via Getty Images By Padhraic Garvey, CFA, Regional Head of Research, Americas; Benjamin Schroeder, Senior Rates Strategist; and Michiel Tukker, Senior UK & Eurozone Rates Strategist Base case, we expect to see a way through this wholeThis article was written byING Economic and Financial Analysis5.32K FollowersFollowFrom Trump to trade, FX to Brexit, ING’s global economists have it covered. Go to ING.com/THINK to stay a step ahead. We’re sorry we can’t reply to individuals' comments.Content disclaimer: The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument.This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. For our full disclaimer please click here.

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