Prediction Markets Are Pricing in Pennies for a $150,000 Bitcoin by March -- Here's Why I Still Wouldn't Bet Against This Crypto Wild Card

By Dominic Basulto – Mar 5, 2026 at 11:15PM ESTKey PointsPolymarket traders give Bitcoin just a 1% chance of hitting $150,000 by the end of March.Given Bitcoin's volatility, quarterly returns can vary significantly, making it difficult to separate signal from noise.However, 1% odds for a March price target may not give a true picture of Bitcoin's long-term potential.Things look a bit grim for Bitcoin (BTC 2.70%) right now. It's down 42% from its all-time high of $126,000 from a few months ago and trades for just $72,000. No wonder prediction market traders on Polymarket are only giving Bitcoin a 1% chance of hitting the $150,000 price level by the end of March. After all, it's almost inconceivable that Bitcoin could rally by a head-spinning 108% in the course of just 30 days. But those 1% odds might be telling a very different story about Bitcoin than people think. Here's why. Bitcoin's volatility Many investors continue to underestimate Bitcoin's volatility. Even in years when Bitcoin has had monster rallies, it has also had its share of peaks and valleys. The price of Bitcoin does not go straight up, even in good years. The long-term trajectory, of course, is straight up. But along the way, there are plenty of panics, sell-offs, and flash crashes. Here's a Bitcoin chart for 2020, when it rallied in price by an incredible 304%. Bitcoin literally quadrupled in price that year, but there were plenty of head-fakes, abrupt turns, and fake-outs for the first nine months. It was only in October that Bitcoin really turned on the afterburners. Bitcoin / U.S. dollar chart by TradingView And, if you study the historical data for Bitcoin, one fact becomes readily apparent: Bitcoin can turn on a dime. It can be down 40% one quarter and then rebound by 25% in the next quarter, as it did in 2021. There is no such thing as a gradual recovery with Bitcoin. ExpandCRYPTO: BTCBitcoinToday's Change(-2.70%) $-1954.61Current Price$70444.00Key Data PointsMarket Cap$1.4TDay's Range$70178.00 - $73434.0052wk Range$60255.56 - $126079.89Volume53B In short, Bitcoin is more volatile than any typical stock. It may not really matter what Bitcoin does in one quarter, because it can abruptly reverse course in the next quarter. That's why Bitcoin's poor first-quarter performance in 2026 might matter less than you think. Image source: Getty Images. Binary "yes/no" outcomes According to new research from Galaxy Digital, prediction markets tend to overstate consensus. This is due to their emphasis on binary "yes/no" outcomes. That's what sometimes trips up prediction market traders. They see a 1% chance of an event occurring in the future and immediately assume there's massive consensus among traders. Right now, it seems like the entire crypto universe is against Bitcoin. However, there's a big difference between thinking that Bitcoin might hit a certain price and being absolutely, 100% convinced. Those on the fence about Bitcoin might change their opinions overnight. Once they do, the probabilities might shift markedly. What were the odds of Bitcoin hitting $100,000? I'm taking that 1% probability of Bitcoin hitting $150,000 by the end of March with a grain of salt. That's because I'm not focused on Bitcoin's price on a quarter-over-quarter or even an annual basis. I'm looking at Bitcoin's price over the long haul. With that in mind, Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency that has seen exponential price growth over an incredibly short period of time. Thirteen years ago, I'm sure that anyone trying to predict the future price of Bitcoin when it was trading for under $100 could never have predicted a day when Bitcoin traded for upwards of $100,000. After all, 1000x returns in the span of just over a decade would have been just too improbable, right?Read NextMar 5, 2026 •By Lyle Daly1 Cryptocurrency Set to Rebound in 2026Mar 5, 2026 •By Alex CarchidiWhat's Next for Bitcoin: $45,000 or $100,000?Mar 5, 2026 •By Anthony Di PizioCrypto Crash: Is Bitcoin a Buy After Its 40% Slump?Mar 4, 2026 •By Dominic BasultoCrypto Bettors Say Sub‑$150,000 Bitcoin Is the Base Case for 2026 -- Here's How Investors Can Still WinMar 4, 2026 •By Chris MacDonaldBitcoin Roars Back: Here's What Drove a 7% Surge In the World's Largest Cryptocurrency TodayMar 4, 2026 •By Alex CarchidiDid Market Manipulation Cause Bitcoin to Crash?About the AuthorDominic Basulto is a contributing Motley Fool crypto analyst covering cryptocurrencies, digital assets, and crypto-related companies. Prior to The Motley Fool, Dominic was a technology and innovation journalist at The Washington Post and Fortune. He holds a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University and an MBA in finance from Yale School of Management.TMFCryptoDomX@dominicbasultoStocks MentionedBitcoinCRYPTO: BTC$70,444.00(-2.70%)-$1,954.61Galaxy DigitalNASDAQ: GLXY$22.73(-6.62%)-$1.61*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.