Oracle: The Bounce Is Just The Beginning

Doug Collins235 FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(18min)CommentsSummaryOracle is undervalued at $150, with a fair value estimate between $173 and $180 per share on a 12-month view.Despite negative free cash flow and $162B in debt, ORCL's $553B RPO and accelerating revenue growth support a bullish, asymmetric risk/reward profile.Cloud infrastructure revenue grew 84% YoY; multicloud database revenue surged 531% YoY, with high-margin expansion opportunities from database and recent layoffs.Market pessimism over OpenAI concentration and capex is overdone; even conservative RPO conversion assumptions justify significant upside from current levels.Getty Images I bought Oracle (ORCL) back in June of last year somewhere around the $200-$210 range. At that point my thesis was very different from what it is today; it was more of a boring "stable enterprise software compounder with a solidThis article was written byDoug Collins235 FollowersFollowI come from the world of SQL queries, data visualization. My professional background is in data analytics and social media marketing, which gave me a weird but useful lens for looking at markets. I usually think in datasets, trends and pattern recognition before I think in headlines. I started learning about the investing and financial market during COVID like a lot of people, but unlike most, I never left. What started as buying a few stocks during lockdown turned into a deep dive down the rabbit hole and studying market structure, learning options. Over time I went from a casual investor to actively swing trading stocks and regularly trading Nasdaq futures. I also actively trade options and Nasdaq (NQ) futures as a swing trader, which keeps me plugged into short-term market dynamics, and volatility. When I am not staring at charts or digging through earnings reports, you'll find me training jiu-jitsu at my local academy.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of ORCL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.