ONEOK: Bullish Setup Remains Despite Slower Near-Term Growth

The Alpha Analyst3.78K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(11min)CommentsSummaryONEOK remains a Buy as conservative EBITDA guidance and partial rerating leave meaningful upside, despite a recent 20% rally and downgrade from Strong Buy.OKE's 2026 EBITDA guidance of $8.1B is conservative, with upside potential if oil prices remain above modeled levels and macro headwinds abate.Most rerating potential remains, as current EV/EBITDA multiple (10.6x) is below the normalized 12x, with structural growth drivers intact.Long-term upside is supported by internal execution, integration synergies, new capacity ramp-ups, and unpriced optionality from LNG and data center demand. liopuga/iStock via Getty Images In my December 2025 thesis, I had argued that ONEOK's (OKE) upside outlook was driven by a combination of supporting factors - deleveraging, falling capital intensity, and EBITDA expansion (supported by synergies and operating leverage). The stock wasThis article was written byThe Alpha Analyst3.78K FollowersFollowI am a stock analyst with over 20 years of experience in quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management. My focus is on equity valuation, market trends, and portfolio optimization to uncover high-growth investment opportunities. As a former Vice President at Barclays, I led teams in model validation, stress testing, and regulatory finance, developing a deep expertise in both fundamental and technical analysis. Alongside my research partner (also my wife), I co-author investment research, combining our complementary strengths to deliver high-quality, data-driven insights. Our approach blends rigorous risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation. We have a particular interest in macroeconomic trends, corporate earnings, and financial statement analysis, aiming to provide actionable ideas for investors seeking to outperform the market.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.