Oil Shocks And Recessionary Outcomes

Lance Roberts34.02K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(21min)Comment(1)SummaryAfter more than three decades of watching oil markets upend economies, one pattern keeps repeating - investors learn the wrong lessons from the last shock.The Federal Reserve Board’s own researchers concluded that there is no mechanical link between net oil price increases and subsequent recessions, even controlling for the magnitude of the spike.Capital Economics recently projected that even in a contained three-month conflict scenario, Brent could average $150 per barrel over the next six months. SimonSkafar/E+ via Getty Images After more than three decades of watching oil markets upend economies, one pattern keeps repeating: investors learn the wrong lessons from the last shock. The 1973 OPEC embargo taught us that geopolitical disruptions are temporary. That lesson then gotThis article was written byLance Roberts34.02K FollowersFollowAfter having been in the investing world for more than 25 years from private banking and investment management to private and venture capital; I have pretty much "been there and done that" at one point or another. I am currently a partner at RIA Advisors in Houston, Texas. The majority of my time is spent analyzing, researching and writing commentary about investing, investor psychology and macro-views of the markets and the economy. My thoughts are not generally mainstream and are often contrarian in nature but I try an use a common sense approach, clear explanations and my “real world” experience in the process. I am a managing partner of RIA Pro, a weekly subscriber based-newsletter that is distributed to individual and professional investors nationwide. The newsletter covers economic, political and market topics as they relate to your money and life. I also write a daily blog which is read by thousands nationwide from individuals to professionals at www.realinvestmentadvice.com.