Oil Prices Are Soaring. Will Gas Hit $5 a Gallon Soon?

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Oil Prices Are Soaring.

Will Gas Hit $5 a Gallon Soon? By: Pete Grieve Pete Grieve Lead News Reporter | Joined September 2022 Pete Grieve is a personal finance reporter. In his time at Money, Pete has covered everything from car buying to credit cards to the housing market. Has also written: No Tax on Tips: How to Deduct Up to $25K of Your Income 10 States Where Gas Prices Are Spiking the Highest Due to the Iran War State Farm Is Sending $100 Car Insurance Refunds to Millions of Customers I Earn $130,000 but Am Terrified of Layoffs. Should I Stop Funding My 401(k) to Pay off My Mortgage?

The Best Day to Book a Cheap International Flight Just Changed See full bio Editor: Julia Glum Julia Glum Managing Editor | Joined February 2018 Julia Glum joined Money in 2018 and specializes in covering financial trends that affect everyday Americans' wallets. She also writes Dollar Scholar, a weekly newsletter that teaches young adults how to navigate the messy world of money. Has also written: When Are State Taxes Due? Here Are the 2026 Deadlines When Social Security Recipients Will Get Their Checks in March How to File Your Taxes for Free With TurboTax This Year How to File Taxes for Free This Year From New Deductions to Bigger Refunds, Here Are 8 Major Tax Changes in 2026 See full bio Published: Mar 10, 2026 11:00 a.m. EST 5 min read Money; Getty Images Gas prices in the U.S. have surged 61.8 cents in the past month, a fierce spike as the Iran war shocks oil and gas markets worldwide. The state average has already crossed the $5 barrier in California, where drivers are now paying $5.29 per gallon — nearly 80 cents more than a month ago, according to AAA data. It raises the question: Could the national average surpass $5 again, as it did briefly in June 2022 in the early phase of the war between Russia and Ukraine? About 20% of global oil supply is currently disrupted at the Strait of Hormuz, according to Rapidan Energy Group, and the price for crude oil, which makes up about 47% of what drivers pay for gas in the U.S., has risen about 32% in a month. Ads by Money. We may be compensated if you click this ad.AdGas prices are rising—help protect your savings with a Gold IRAInflation can impact your investments. A Gold IRA helps provide the diversification and stability you may need to safeguard your financial future. Click on your state to get started.HawaiiAlaskaFloridaSouth CarolinaGeorgiaAlabamaNorth CarolinaTennesseeRIRhode IslandCTConnecticutMAMassachusettsMaineNHNew HampshireVTVermontNew YorkNJNew JerseyDEDelawareMDMarylandWest VirginiaOhioMichiganArizonaNevadaUtahColoradoNew MexicoSouth DakotaIowaIndianaIllinoisMinnesotaWisconsinMissouriLouisianaVirginiaDCWashington DCIdahoCaliforniaNorth DakotaWashingtonOregonMontanaWyomingNebraskaKansasOklahomaPennsylvaniaKentuckyMississippiArkansasTexasInvest in Gold "The parabolic price hikes make transposition to words difficult," Tom Kloza, an independent oil analyst, said in written observations. After rising to a peak above $110 Monday, oil prices tumbled later in the day as President Donald Trump told CBS News the war was "very complete." Brent crude — the global oil benchmark — was trading around $91 per barrel as of press time Tuesday morning. "Consumers have seen gasoline prices surge at one of the fastest rates in years after oil prices spiked following U.S. strikes on Iran," Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, wrote in a blog post Monday. Gas prices increase: Will the national average reach $5? The national average is expected to jump further this week given the latest surge in oil above the $100 per barrel mark for the first time in four years. "A freeze of current wholesale numbers would imply that we’ll see the nationwide average get to either side of $4/gallon," Kloza wrote. "This may happen within the next 72 hours." Other western states like Washington ($4.69) and Hawaii ($4.59) could be next to join the $5 club. As of Tuesday morning, the only other states with gas above $4 were Nevada ($4.30) and Oregon ($4.26), according to AAA. The national average is $3.54 per gallon, up from $2.92 a month ago. GasBuddy reported that prices in "many states" could jump by 20 to 50 cents this week. "With additional attacks across the Middle East over the weekend pushing oil above $100 per barrel for the first time in years, fuel markets are now rapidly recalibrating to the risk of prolonged disruption to global supply flows," De Haan said. There's still a ton of room for the national average to run before the $5 per gallon threshold would be in jeopardy. As a general rule of thumb, gas prices rise by 25 cents with a $10 swing in the price of oil. So at this point, $4 gas seems more within the realm of possibility. But $5 gas during this war cannot be ruled out entirely, given the volatility that comes with missiles and drones being launched in the world's top oil-producing region. "We’ve rallied to $100-$120 per barrel oil even though most assessments believe the Strait will be reopened for business this month," Kloza wrote. A "worst-case scenario" in which Iran attacks ships passing the strait could propel prices to "the $125 to $160 per barrel range," he added, which could put gas prices in the vicinity of $5, if sustained. South Korea just introduced a 'gas price' cap. Could the U.S. follow? On Monday, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung announced that the government is capping fuel prices, a move South Korea hasn't made in nearly three decades. He said the country will "swiftly introduce and boldly implement" a system with maximum prices for gas and diesel. More details are expected later this week. In the 1970s, the U.S. enacted price controls on gasoline, which were lifted in 1981 by President Ronald Reagan. That was 45 years ago, and gas price controls have not been floated seriously in the U.S. recently. Trump is reportedly reviewing a set of options to try to keep oil prices in check, according to a Reuters article that mentioned discussions about potential releases of oil from strategic reserves. Relief could also come in the form of looser sanctions on oil-producing countries like Russia or the government waiving certain federal taxes. Ads by Money. 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