Oil Prices Are Near $100 Again. Here's How Higher Fuel Costs Could Flow Into Inflation Data.

By Reuben Gregg Brewer – Mar 11, 2026 at 5:15PM ESTKey PointsGeopolitical conflict in the Middle East has driven up oil and natural gas prices.Consumers will feel the pinch at the pump, but higher energy prices will eventually show up elsewhere as well.The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to a somewhat predictable rise in oil and natural gas prices. With key energy shipping routes disrupted, there are even talks of releasing oil and natural gas from strategic energy reserves to stem the rise. You will start to see the impact of rising oil and natural gas prices fairly quickly, but the lingering impact could be even bigger. The first place is the pump Oil is used to create gasoline, and when you go to fill up your car, you will start seeing the impact of rising oil prices. This happens fairly quickly, which you likely already know because the price of gasoline changes daily and, sometimes, even more often. The price of gasoline is one of the most volatile components of inflation. Image source: Getty Images. Historically, Motley Fool research shows that inflation averages around 3.8% per year. However, inflation has risen well beyond that at times, hitting more than 20% in 1920. This is important because high inflation tends to be bad for the market, with inflation over 5% associated with S&P 500 index (^GSPC 0.08%) returns averaging around 2.4%. High energy prices hit in other ways, too But don't think you can avoid rising energy prices because you drive an electric vehicle. Natural gas is an increasingly important fuel for electric utilities. As the price of natural gas rises, the risk of higher electricity prices rises with it. That isn't where the risk ends, either. The things you buy every day, or even just occasionally, all need to be moved from where they are made to where they are sold in order for you to buy them. Transportation costs rise as energy prices rise. Those costs will eventually flow into the price of the products you buy. That will likely have a delayed impact, but it will eventually lead to higher inflation.

Brent Crude Oil Wholesale Spot Petroleum Price data by YCharts Going a step further back in the supply chain, chemicals and other products made from oil and natural gas are also an important part of the manufacturing process for many things. Even things like lubricants for manufacturing equipment need to be considered here. Higher input costs will eventually get passed on to buyers, as well. The inflation impact could linger Even after oil and natural gas prices fall, it will take time for the cost increases you see to recede because of the time required to move and process these commodities. So, inflation could be impacted for longer than you might expect from even a relatively short period of higher energy prices. And if elevated energy prices linger, the impact could be material.Read NextMar 11, 2026 •By Emma NewberyStock Market Today, March 11: Oracle Surges as Markets Weigh Geopolitical RisksMar 11, 2026 •By Katie BrockmanShould You Really Invest in the Stock Market Right Now? Here's Warren Buffett's Best Advice.Mar 11, 2026 •By David DierkingLeveraged ETFs Can Deliver Fast Results.

They Can Also Compound Losses Quickly.Mar 11, 2026 •By David DierkingThe Economy Just Did This for Only the 13th Time in the Past 85 Years; History Shows It Usually Leads to a Bear MarketMar 11, 2026 •By Trevor JennewinePrediction: The Stock Market's Bull Run Will End Under President Trump in 2026Mar 10, 2026 •By Emma NewberyStock Market Today, March 10: Oil Prices Drop on G7 TalksAbout the AuthorReuben Gregg Brewer is a contributing Motley Fool stock market analyst covering energy, utilities, REITs, and consumer staples. He is the former director of research at Value Line Publishing, where he rose from mutual fund analyst to equity analyst before leading all research operations. Reuben holds a bachelor’s degree in psychology from SUNY Purchase, a master’s in social work from Columbia University, and an MBA from Regis University. He has been featured as a financial expert on CNBC and in the Financial Times, Barron’s, and InvestmentNews.TMFReubenGBrewerStocks MentionedS&P 500 IndexSNPINDEX: ^GSPC$6,775.80(-0.08%)-$5.68*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.