Nebius: Meta And Nvidia Deals Plus New Capital Close 2026 Funding Gap, Driving $140 Price Target

Denis Buivolov, CFA1.99K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(19min)CommentsSummaryRecent financing rounds, including a $2 billion investment from Nvidia and $4.33 billion in convertible bonds, have effectively de-risked Nebius's 2026 CapEx requirements.The new $12 billion-$27 billion contract with Meta provides long-term revenue visibility and introduces a significant prepayment model, reducing the reliance on high-cost external debt.The transition to Rubin GPUs is expected to drive a substantial increase in revenue per 1 MW ($17.7M vs. $11.6M for previous generations), more than offsetting the higher associated CapEx.Based on my updated 2028 adjusted EBIT forecast of $4.8 billion and a conservative 13x EV/EBIT multiple, the estimated fair value for Nebius Group is $140.2 per share.

Getty Images Background It has been a month since my previous article on Nebius (NBIS), which focused on the company’s Q4 2025 results. Since then, at least three major news items have emerged that significantly impact the company's investmentThis article was written byDenis Buivolov, CFA1.99K FollowersFollowI am the head of research for the pre-IPO and venture division of the investment bank. Prior to that, I have been working as a global equity research analyst in an investment bank for the past 5 years. My specialization are Biotechnology, Internet and Media. I Received my CFA Charter in 2017. Also, I am FRM Charter. Besides, I am the author of the Russian-language Telegram-channel (the link in the section Website URL).Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NBIS either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. This is not investment advice. I am not an investment advisor. Before making any investment, please do your own research!Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.