Microsoft: Macrohard, Competition, And War-Related Fears (Rating Downgrade)

Chetan Woodun8.6K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(12min)Comment(1)SummaryMicrosoft's stock has plunged, and it is now undervalued.It remains a highly profitable business, but the problem is that its AI economics may not continue to expand margins, unlike Google or Amazon.Also, with its investment concentrated in the UAE, the war in the Middle East constitutes a headwind.Equally important, the software giant's SaaS business model could be disrupted, a possibility I explain using Elon Musk's Macrohard. Jean-Luc Ichard/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Since I was last bullish on Microsoft (MSFT) in February last year, it is down by about $10, as shown in the chart below. However, before the slide, which started in November, mostly due to AI bubble fears, itThis article was written byChetan Woodun8.6K FollowersFollowAs an Investment Research Analyst, I cover publicly listed securities (stocks and funds) listed on the NYSE/NASDAQ and mostly covering tech. My insights are mostly based on my own experience investing for 25 years, together with qualifications in Business Management and Equity Finance.I also have a degree in Electronics and Communications, and an MSc in Information Management. Having been through the GFC (Great Financial Crisis) of 2008 and its losses explains my mostly moderate positions and focus on strategies to preserve capital. My investment journey started in mutual funds before later converging to individual stocks and ETFs and I love doing my own research, and to this end, Seeking Alpha provides unique perspectives.I have also been a Team/Project lead, an IT Professional, an entrepreneur in real estate, and a farmer, and dedicate at least 20 hours per week to working on a non-profit basis.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. This is an investment thesis and is intended for informational purposes. Investors are kindly requested to do additional research before investing.Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.