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Micron's Selloff Is A Setup For The Next Surge

Seeking Alpha
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⚡ Quantum Brief
Micron posted $23.9B revenue and $12.20 EPS in early 2026 but shares dropped ~20% amid fears over TurboQuant’s AI memory tech and capital expenditure concerns. Analysts project forward EPS near $98 by 2027, yet the stock trades at ~6x forward P/E, suggesting markets anticipate aggressive earnings normalization despite sustained AI demand. AI-driven DRAM and NAND shortages will persist beyond 2026, with Micron unable to meet demand even at record margins, defying traditional memory cycle assumptions. Chinese rivals like CXMT and YMTC lag in high-margin AI memory, focusing instead on commodity segments, leaving Micron dominant in premium markets. The selloff reflects outdated market models misapplying legacy memory cycles to Micron’s structurally transformed, AI-centric business, creating a potential undervaluation.
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Quantryon Capital845 FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(8min)Comment(1)SummaryMicron reported $23.9B revenue and $12.20 EPS, yet fell ~20% as TurboQuant fears and capex concerns drove sentiment reversal.Forward EPS peaks near $98 by 2027, but current ~6x forward P/E implies aggressive earnings normalization assumptions by the market.AI-driven demand keeps DRAM and NAND supply constrained beyond 2026, with Micron still under-delivering to customers at record margins.Chinese competitors like CXMT and YMTC are progressing, but remain concentrated in commodity segments, not high-margin AI memory markets. luza studios/E+ via Getty Images The biggest misconception I see is that the market is essentially attempting to apply an old traditional memory cycle to a business that has structurally changed over time, and therefore Micron (MU) isThis article was written byQuantryon Capital845 FollowersFollowMy investing journey began at 15, sparked by a deep curiosity for markets and shaped by my father's career in finance. What started as a fascination with Warren Buffett’s annual letters quickly evolved into a full-time passion for value investing, mental models, and understanding how great businesses create long-term value. I’ve spent years independently studying financial statements, building DCF models, and analyzing companies through both fundamental and behavioral lenses. While I’m still early in my professional path, I’ve been immersed in the world of investing for nearly a decade. From dissecting shareholder letters to reverse-engineering business strategies, I’ve developed a disciplined, fundamentals-first approach grounded in long-term thinking. I focus on identifying mispriced quality companies and understanding what makes certain business models resilient across cycles. I write on Seeking Alpha to share insights, test ideas in public, and contribute to a community of investors who value clear thinking over hype. My goal is to provide thoughtful, research-backed commentary, whether on under-the-radar compounders, Growth/GARP stocks, or misunderstood tech platforms. Above all, I invest with conviction, patience, and a relentless drive to keep learning.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in MU over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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