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U.S. Markets Are Repeating 2025's Tantrums

Seeking Alpha
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⚡ Quantum Brief
The S&P 500 mirrors 2025’s "tariff tantrum" as markets dismiss geopolitical volatility, including Middle East tensions and oil spikes, betting on a swift 2–3 week resolution to the US-Iran conflict per administration signals. Valuations remain attractive at ~20x forward earnings with 18% projected EPS growth, aligning with the index’s 5-year average despite macroeconomic turbulence, reinforcing bullish sentiment amid robust corporate earnings outlooks. Analyst Uttam Dey, a former Apple/Google tech strategist, advocates deploying cash now, citing a market bottom and a pivot from geopolitical risks to high-growth sectors like AI, semiconductors, and upcoming IPOs. The 2025 "Liberation Day" tariffs’ anniversary underscores lingering trade-war parallels, though current market resilience suggests investors anticipate clearer policy resolution compared to last year’s prolonged uncertainty. Focus shifts to tech-driven sectors—semiconductors, cloud, and defense—as Dey’s Pragmatic Optimist newsletter highlights IPO pipelines and innovation-led growth over short-term geopolitical noise.
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Uttam Dey5.87K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(10min)CommentsSummaryThe S&P 500 is exhibiting price action reminiscent of last year’s tariff tantrum, with markets looking past current geopolitical volatility.Despite oil price spikes and Middle East tensions, the SP500 is anchoring expectations on a 2–3 week resolution of the US/Iran war, supported by the US administration's guidance and market behavior.The SP500 trades at ~20x forward earnings with projected 18% EPS growth, matching its 5-year average and suggesting attractive valuation amid an ultra-robust earnings outlook.I remain bullish on US equities, deploying cash as markets appear to be bottoming and shifting focus from geopolitical risks to upcoming IPO opportunities. PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images Investment Thesis It’s been a year since the Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs were announced. The announcement of those tariffs sent markets into a tailspin since there was no clear end in sight to theThis article was written byUttam Dey5.87K FollowersFollowUttam is a growth-oriented investment analyst whose equity research primarily focuses on the technology sector. Semiconductors, Artificial Intelligence and Cloud software are some of the key sectors that are regularly researched and published by him. His research also focuses on other areas such as MedTech, Defense Tech, and Renewable Energy. In addition, Uttam also authors The Pragmatic Optimist Newsletter along with his wife, Amrita Roy, who is also an author on the newsletter as well as on this platform. Their newsletter gets regularly cited by leading publications such as the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, etc. Prior to publishing his research, Uttam worked in Silicon Valley, leading teams for some of the largest technology firms in the world, including Apple and Google.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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