Kaspi.kz: The Floor Is The Dividend, The Upside Is Turkey

Jonquil Capital153 FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(9min)CommentsSummaryKaspi.kz has declined 32% to $73, but the core business remains robust, with revenue compounding at 30%+ and gross margins above 70%.KSPI’s Hepsiburada acquisition adds complexity and Turkish macro risk, yet the market’s discount appears excessive given the long-term optionality.At current prices, KSPI offers a projected 9% 2026 dividend yield, with downside anchored by its dominant Kazakh fintech franchise.I see the main risks as Kazakh regulatory shifts, Turkish macro deterioration, and delayed free cash flow recovery, but the risk-reward is now compelling. Tom Werner/DigitalVision via Getty Images I've never found myself in a more complicated love-hate relationship than owning shares of Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI). When I last wrote this about Kaspi, the company was at $107 a share, I described Hepsiburada asThis article was written byJonquil Capital153 FollowersFollowJonquil Capital is a private investor, investment analyst, and writer from Smyrna, Georgia - the Jonquil city.Hopefully, by putting some words down in a page I can clarify my own thoughts on investment ideas and inspire worthwhile discussion and debate about the merits of these investments. I've been fully indoctrinated into the value investing discipline despite a background as a founder in the tech startup ecosystem rife with valuations. Drawing upon my prior experience, I look at each investment as a bonafide ownership stake in the business with an indefinite time horizon. Jonquil Capital is not a registered investment advisor, legal or tax advisor, or a broker / dealer. All opinions expressed are from personal research and intended to be educational. You should consider your own personal situation and seek tailored professional advice if needed before making any investing or financial decisions for yourself.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of KSPI either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.