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Inflation Expectations Edge Higher On Oil-Driven Tension

Seeking Alpha
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The Iran conflict has driven energy prices higher, pushing Treasury-based inflation forecasts upward in March 2026, though market reactions remain measured. Inflation expectations are rising but haven’t yet triggered alarm, as Treasury yields reflect only modest shifts in long-term price growth outlooks. Sustained energy cost pressures from the geopolitical crisis could force the Federal Reserve to reassess its planned interest rate cuts this year. Markets are monitoring the situation closely, as firmer inflation expectations may complicate the Fed’s efforts to balance economic growth and price stability. Analysts warn prolonged oil price spikes could delay or reduce the scale of anticipated rate reductions, altering monetary policy timelines.
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TMC Research601 FollowersFollow5ShareSaveCommentsSummaryTreasury-based inflation forecasts are inching up as the Iran conflict continues.Markets aren’t alarmed yet, but firmer expectations could complicate the Fed’s path.Persistent pressure from higher energy costs could reshape the Fed’s rate cut timeline. lixu/iStock via Getty Images By James Picerno The ongoing war in Iran has sparked inflation concerns following a surge in energy prices. Market sentiment has shifted, but only moderately to date, and so, the implied outlook for inflation based on Treasury yields stillThis article was written byTMC Research601 FollowersFollowTMC Research is the research division of The Milwaukee Company, a registered investment advisor based in Thiensville, Wisconsin that provides wealth management services and manages the Brinsmere Funds ETFs.

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