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Indivior: Still Attractive After FY25 Earnings Beat

Seeking Alpha
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⚡ Quantum Brief
The pharmaceutical firm surged over 300% since 2024 lows, driven by stable market share for its flagship opioid-use disorder treatment, aggressive cost controls, and activist investor pressure. Management projects 8% sales growth for its lead drug in 2026 alongside 48% adjusted EBITDA margins, reinforcing bullish guidance despite sector volatility. Current valuation remains undervalued at under 10x next-twelve-month EV/EBITDA, paired with a 10% free cash flow yield, bolstering the investment case. A $400 million share buyback program for 2026–2027 was approved, signaling confidence in sustained profitability and potential equity upside. Key risks include patient attrition, reliance on a single therapeutic area, and exposure to Medicaid/insurance policy shifts that could disrupt revenue streams.
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George Theodosi1.04K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(10min)CommentsSummaryIndivior has rallied over 300% since 2024 lows, driven by Sublocade market share stability, cost controls, and shareholder activism.INDV remains a 'buy' at a $3.7 billion market cap, with management targeting 8% Sublocade sales growth in 2026 and 48% adj. EBITDA margins.Valuation is attractive at sub-10x NTM EV/EBITDA and a 10% FCF yield, with a $400m buyback approved for 2026–2027.Key risks include high patient attrition, concentrated OUD exposure, and vulnerability to insurance or Medicaid funding changes.Conservatively see upside potential of 30%+ in equity value without considering the buyback programme. Rabbitti/iStock via Getty Images Introduction I previously covered Indivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (INDV) when the market had become extremely bearish on the name back in October 2024. At the time, the company traded at sub-$10 per share andThis article was written byGeorge Theodosi1.04K FollowersFollowI'm an IMC qualified contributor who's followed financial markets for 5 years and has worked professionally in primary investment research for 3 years. I'm a generalist who enjoys researching businesses from a bottom up angle with an interest in smaller under covered companies where there is greater opportunity for mis-pricing.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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