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How To Capitalize On The Volatility Spike And Iran Conflict For Portfolio Rebalancing

Seeking Alpha
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⚡ Quantum Brief
CFA Tyson Halsey urges investors to shift from overvalued US equities and Treasuries into international stocks, emerging markets, commodities, and gold amid rising inflation and geopolitical tensions tied to the Iran conflict. The US dollar’s recent rally is deemed temporary, with prolonged weakness expected to boost gold, oil, and emerging markets through 2026 and beyond. Gold’s bull market could push prices to $8,000–$17,250/oz by 2032, with small-cap miners offering high non-correlated returns as safe-haven demand surges. US large-caps remain historically overvalued (CAPE 38.9, Buffett Indicator at 2+ standard deviations), signaling potential declines and favoring value and small-cap rotations. Halsey warns against speculative bets on unpredictable Iran conflict developments, advocating strategic portfolio rebalancing over reactive trading.
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Tyson Halsey, CFA2.97K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(13min)CommentsSummaryUS equities and Treasuries are losing appeal; I advocate rotating into international, emerging market stocks, commodities, and gold to capitalize on the unfolding inflationary cycle.The US dollar's recent counter-trend rally is temporary; I expect a prolonged period of dollar weakness, supporting strong performance in gold, oil, and emerging markets.Gold is in a new bull market, with potential to reach $8,000–$17,250/oz by 2032; gold miners, especially small-cap explorers, offer significant non-correlated upside.US large-cap equities are historically overvalued, with CAPE at 38.9 and the Buffett Indicator two standard deviations above average, signaling risk of further declines and favoring value and small-cap rotations. DNY59/iStock via Getty Images In today’s market, the Iran conflict has created great investment opportunities. However, too many investors are reacting, trying to anticipate these confounding military developments and trade on what is highly unpredictable. That is an unwise strategy, which is really speculation. Business newsThis article was written byTyson Halsey, CFA2.97K FollowersFollowTyson Halsey, CFA, founded Income Growth Advisors, LLC, a South Carolina based Registered Investment Advisor. Through his career, Halsey has researched and invested in technology, energy, quantitative strategies, been a shareholder activist on behalf of shareholder rights, and invested in Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) since 2000. . Halsey has appeared in major media including The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Charleston Post and Courier, South Carolina Public Radio and CNBC. Halsey won the USA Today CNBC Investment Challenge in 1992 in the options division.Halsey formed Optima Process Systems, Inc. in 2018 and used economic cost modelling for ESG solutions. We analyzed heavy oil upgrading in South America, bunker fuel desulfurization for IMO 2020, and biofuel and biomass processing. Halsey has moderated panels on the energy transition "ESG 2.0" for the Ivy Family Office Network (IVYFON).Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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