HF Foods: I Don't Buy Wall Street's Bull Case

Pedro Goulart878 FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(11min)CommentsSummaryHF Foods remains a 'Hold' as FY 2026 is projected to mirror FY 2025, with limited catalysts for upside.Significant dilution risk looms from a $100 million ATM program, potentially increasing shares outstanding if fully utilized.Management targets low single-digit revenue and EBITDA growth, with organic expansion and M&A constrained by high leverage (Debt/EBITDA > 4.5x).Upside depends on accretive M&A and synergies; without them, dilution negates gains, keeping the risk/reward profile unexciting for new buyers.

Getty Images Tariffs, weak traffic at Asian restaurants, and now...an overhang!? FY 2025 was lukewarm for HF Foods Group Inc. (HFFG), and FY 2026 doesn’t smell any better. Well, the stock is already down almost 80% since its IPO in 2018This article was written byPedro Goulart878 FollowersFollowI’m an equity analyst and founder of Goulart’s Restaurant Stocks, a research firm focused on the U.S. restaurant industry — from quick-service and fast casual to fine dining and niche concepts. I lead all thematic research and valuation efforts, applying advanced financial modeling, sector-specific KPIs, and strategic insights to uncover hidden value across public equities. In addition to restaurants, I cover consumer discretionary, food & beverage, casinos & gaming, and IPOs, with a particular focus on micro and small caps that are often overlooked by mainstream analysts. My research has been featured on Seeking Alpha, Yahoo Finance, Mises Institute, Investing.com and other plataforms. My background combines hands-on experience in finance and business management with academic foundations. I hold an MBA in Controllership and Accounting Forensics, a Bachelor’s in Business Administration. I’ve also pursued specialized training in valuation, financial modeling, and restaurant operations (I had a brief experience as an undergraduate as a franchise partner for a regional ice cream shop).Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.