Finding The Opportunities After The Selloff And End Of The War

DM Martins Research21.17K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(12min)CommentsSummaryWith the Iran war overhang potentially easing, I see limited upside in crude oil and related commodities after a sharp rally in USO (+80% in six months).My proprietary leading indicator, the 'Smell Funny Index,' signals persistent economic fragility since early 2022, despite strong SPY returns and weak long-duration treasuries.Tactically, I favor mega-cap, service-based stocks (QQQ), defensive sectors (XLP, XLU), low-beta exposures, and selective investment-grade fixed income over cyclicals and high-beta assets.Regardless of tactical shifts, I recommend deep, agnostic diversification via risk-parity and defensive ETFs (RPAR, UPAR, SWAN) to manage unpredictable macro risks. rarrarorro/iStock via Getty Images After a few false starts, enough signs have emerged recently that, certainly without any guarantees, we may be approaching the end of the most recent conflict in the Middle East — at least the uglier part of it. The news flow coincides with the endThis article was written byDM Martins Research21.17K FollowersFollowDaniel Martins is the founder of independent research firm DM Martins Research. The firm's work is centered around building more efficient, easily replicable portfolios that are properly risk-balanced for growth with less downside risk. His work has been featured on Seeking Alpha and other platforms through 2,000+ articles, and it has been cited by the New York Times, CNN, Reuters, USA Today, and others.- - -Daniel is the founder and portfolio manager at DM Martins Capital Management LLC, a macro strategy hedge fund (leveraged risk-parity approach that uses return stacking to achieve aggressive long-term capital appreciation). He is a former equity research professional at FBR Capital Markets and Telsey Advisory in New York City and finance analyst at macro hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, where he developed most of his investment management skills earlier in his career. Daniel is also an equity research and global equities market instructor for Wall Street Prep, where he has developed content and trained hundreds of senior and junior analysts at some of the largest bulge bracket investment banks and sovereign investment funds in the world.He holds an MBA in Financial Instruments and Markets from New York University's Stern School of Business.- - -On Seeking Alpha, DM Martins Research has partnered with EPB Macro Research and collaborated with Risk Research, Inc.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. While I do not hold any of the specific tickers mentioned, I am exposed to some of the same underlying assets/benchmarks via derivatives (e.g., long futures contracts) and leveraged ETFs.Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.