Dow: Turnaround Is Taking Shape, But Much Of The Optimism Is Priced In

Sandpiper Investment Research1.49K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(13min)Comment(1)SummaryDow has executed aggressive cost-reduction measures amid a challenging chemical cycle, but shares have rallied 39% since October, raising valuation expectations.Q4'25 results showed continued pricing pressure and soft demand, with EBITDA at $741 million, but cost-saving initiatives outperformed management's guidance.Management targets a $2 billion EBITDA uplift by 2028 via workforce reductions, capex cuts, and operational efficiencies, but macro headwinds and sector overcapacity persist.At 10x EV/EBITDA and a 4% yield, DOW now trades above peers and appears fairly valued; I am holding off on new purchases pending improved macro or a pullback. JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Introduction Since my last update on Dow (DOW) in October 2025, the company has been making improvements in its cost-reduction strategy as it works through one of the tougher chemical cycles in recentThis article was written bySandpiper Investment Research1.49K FollowersFollowI'm an insurance Case Manager with a deep interest in investing. My investment philosophy is all about buying high quality stocks and great businesses. My favorite businesses are those led by disciplined capital allocators, earn exceptional returns on capital, and can compound their invested capital over long periods of time.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of DOW either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.