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CPI Marches Toward 2% But Non-Tariff Hurdles Remain

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⚡ Quantum Brief
January’s CPI rose just 0.2% month-over-month, with annual inflation at 2.4%, reigniting hopes for the Federal Reserve’s 2% target in 2026 after months of stubborn price growth. Deflation in durable (-0.6%) and nondurable goods (-0.3%) undermines claims that tariffs are driving consumer inflation, shifting focus to domestic economic pressures instead. Service sector inflation surged 0.4% in January—its highest monthly jump in a year—though annual service inflation eased to 3.0%, signaling persistent but moderating upward price pressures. Housing costs, a key inflation driver, grew only 0.2% monthly, approaching pre-pandemic trends, but upcoming data adjustments and seasonal factors could disrupt the downward trajectory. Despite progress, analysts warn that volatile data roll-offs and lingering service-sector strength may complicate the final push to sustainable 2% inflation.
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Jeremy LaKosh6.04K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(6min)CommentsSummaryJanuary's CPI rose just 0.2%, with year-over-year inflation at 2.4%, surprising investors and reviving the prospect of 2% inflation in 2026.Deflation in both durable (-0.6%) and nondurable goods (-0.3%) challenges the narrative that tariffs are fueling consumer inflation.Service sector inflation remains a watch point, with January's 0.4% monthly rise the highest in a year, though annual service inflation is down to 3.0%.Housing inflation moderated to a 0.2% monthly increase, nearing pre-pandemic levels, but upcoming data roll-offs and seasonal gaps may complicate the path to 2% inflation.Richard Drury/DigitalVision via Getty Images Introduction Earlier today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the consumer price index for the month of January. This release was particularly significant as it includes pricing changes made by organizations to start the newThis article was written byJeremy LaKosh6.04K FollowersFollowOther writing on Substack: https://yieldstrategies.substack.com/I am currently focused on income investing through either common shares, preferred shares, or bonds. I will occasionally break away and write about the economy at large or a special situation involving a company I've been researching in. I target two articles per week for publication on Monday and Tuesday.About My Background: Bachelors in history/political science, Masters in Business Administration with a specialization in Finance and Economics. I enjoy numbers. I have been investing since 2000. Professionally, I am the CEO of an independent living retirement community in Illinois.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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