A Century of Plenty: Business leaders role in the next era of progress

ForbesA Century of Plenty: Business leaders role in the next era of progressFebruary 24, 2026 | Article Kweilin EllingrudA century ago, in 1925, the world was a tougher place. Lives were shorter, incomes lower, and opportunity far narrower. Over the past 100 years, human ingenuity and economic development have transformed daily life in ways that would have been unimaginable to our great-grandparents. The average person today lives decades longer, and billions of people have risen out of poverty, writes Kweilin Ellingrud in Forbes.In A Century of Plenty, my colleagues draw on decades of research by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) to examine how this progress happened—and to ask a bold question: can we achieve another century like it? Their answer is yes. But only if we are deliberate about upgrading what they call the “progress machine.” The book describes progress not as an accident, but as the result of a system: workers and skills, investment and invention, energy and cities, trade and markets—coordinated by firms and institutions. Together, these elements have delivered extraordinary gains in prosperity and quality of life. At the center of this machine are firms. Firms are not just economic actors; they are “superhuman agents” that coordinate talent, capital, and innovation at scale. They translate scientific breakthroughs into real-world impact, integrating research with operations and bringing products and services to market. A small number of firms contribute the lion’s share of national productivity growth. Fewer than 100 productivity “Standouts” account for two-thirds of growth in our sample of 8,300 large firms in Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. They do this by scaling innovation and reallocating capital to its highest uses. The importance of those standout firms has grown dramatically over time. The scale, reach, and economic weight of the world’s largest companies today is dramatically bigger than those of a century ago. For example, the revenues of the Fortune 500 now represent a significant share of global GDP, growing from 40% of US GDP to 66% between 1955 and today—an illustration of how deeply business has become intertwined with economic outcomes. Companies are central actors in the progress story. For business leaders, that insight should resonate: growth is not inevitable. It is built. Productivity growth underpins prosperity. And productivity depends heavily on investment—physical capital, digital infrastructure, R&D, skills, and organizational capability. When businesses invest effectively, workers can produce more value per hour. When they avoid or delay investments, growth slows. The Crossroads: Decision-Making in a New Era Over the past 100 years, there have been only a handful of true inflection points—moments when the rules of the game shifted fundamentally: the postwar institutional reset of the late 1940s, the macroeconomic and energy realignment of the 1970s and the geopolitical and market opening of the “era of markets” that followed 1989. We are now at another such turning point. Today’s disruptions are real and multi-dimensional: demographic shifts towards older populations and fewer young people in almost all developed economies, rising geopolitical tension and fragmentation, strained public finances, uneven productivity growth, and rapid technological change led by artificial intelligence. Trust in institutions and confidence in upward mobility have weakened in parts of the world. Supply chains are being rewired. Energy systems are being redesigned. Work itself is being reimagined as the skills and jobs of the future are shifting. It is not surprising that the environment feels more uncertain. But this is also a moment of reset. The same forces that once powered the “era of markets” after 1989—innovation, investment, institutional reform and business dynamism—can be retooled for a new era. Artificial intelligence and next-generation robotics, for example, have the potential to meaningfully accelerate productivity growth, much as electrification and earlier general-purpose technologies did in prior decades. Demographic headwinds can be mitigated by higher labor force participation, greater productivity from use of automation and renewed investment in skills. The key is decision-making. At crossroads moments, the choices leaders make disproportionately shape outcomes. Do companies retreat in the face of uncertainty—or do they double down on capability building? Do they treat AI as a cost lever—or as a growth engine? Do they wait for policy clarity—or help shape it? In previous eras, businesses that leaned into change—investing in new technologies, expanding into new markets, redesigning operating models—emerged as the architects of the next growth cycle. Those that clung to the old equilibrium often fell behind. Strategies tailored for a world of seamless globalization and abundant labor may not be fit for a world of demographic constraints, geopolitical complexity and groundbreaking technologies. Leadership today requires reallocating capital and rethinking talent models for a structurally different environment.

Choosing Plenty The opportunity to shape and power another century of growth and economic development like this last century is here. By 2100, even today’s poorest countries could be far more prosperous—if we upgrade the machine that drives growth. History shows that progress accelerates when firms invest boldly, when institutions enable markets to function effectively and when leaders choose to build rather than merely preserve. Business leaders have a pivotal role of allocating capital, scaling innovation, shaping workforces, and influencing policy debates. A century ago, leaders bet on electrification, highways, global trade and scientific management. Today, the bets are on AI, clean energy, human capital, resilient supply chains and institutional renewal. The story we tell ourselves matters. We can choose a narrative of scarcity—or a narrative of possibility. The next century of plenty will not arrive automatically. But with the right decisions at this crossroads, it is within reach. The progress machine is ours to upgrade. This article originally appeared in Forbes.Kweilin Ellingrud is a director of the McKinsey Global Institute and a senior partner at McKinsey & CompanyExplore a career with usIn A Century of Plenty, my colleagues draw on decades of research by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) to examine how this progress happened—and to ask a bold question: can we achieve another century like it? Their answer is yes. But only if we are deliberate about upgrading what they call the “progress machine.” The book describes progress not as an accident, but as the result of a system: workers and skills, investment and invention, energy and cities, trade and markets—coordinated by firms and institutions. Together, these elements have delivered extraordinary gains in prosperity and quality of life. At the center of this machine are firms. Firms are not just economic actors; they are “superhuman agents” that coordinate talent, capital, and innovation at scale. They translate scientific breakthroughs into real-world impact, integrating research with operations and bringing products and services to market. A small number of firms contribute the lion’s share of national productivity growth. Fewer than 100 productivity “Standouts” account for two-thirds of growth in our sample of 8,300 large firms in Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. They do this by scaling innovation and reallocating capital to its highest uses. The importance of those standout firms has grown dramatically over time. The scale, reach, and economic weight of the world’s largest companies today is dramatically bigger than those of a century ago. For example, the revenues of the Fortune 500 now represent a significant share of global GDP, growing from 40% of US GDP to 66% between 1955 and today—an illustration of how deeply business has become intertwined with economic outcomes. Companies are central actors in the progress story. For business leaders, that insight should resonate: growth is not inevitable. It is built. Productivity growth underpins prosperity. And productivity depends heavily on investment—physical capital, digital infrastructure, R&D, skills, and organizational capability. When businesses invest effectively, workers can produce more value per hour. When they avoid or delay investments, growth slows. The Crossroads: Decision-Making in a New Era Over the past 100 years, there have been only a handful of true inflection points—moments when the rules of the game shifted fundamentally: the postwar institutional reset of the late 1940s, the macroeconomic and energy realignment of the 1970s and the geopolitical and market opening of the “era of markets” that followed 1989. We are now at another such turning point. Today’s disruptions are real and multi-dimensional: demographic shifts towards older populations and fewer young people in almost all developed economies, rising geopolitical tension and fragmentation, strained public finances, uneven productivity growth, and rapid technological change led by artificial intelligence. Trust in institutions and confidence in upward mobility have weakened in parts of the world. Supply chains are being rewired. Energy systems are being redesigned. Work itself is being reimagined as the skills and jobs of the future are shifting. It is not surprising that the environment feels more uncertain. But this is also a moment of reset. The same forces that once powered the “era of markets” after 1989—innovation, investment, institutional reform and business dynamism—can be retooled for a new era. Artificial intelligence and next-generation robotics, for example, have the potential to meaningfully accelerate productivity growth, much as electrification and earlier general-purpose technologies did in prior decades. Demographic headwinds can be mitigated by higher labor force participation, greater productivity from use of automation and renewed investment in skills. The key is decision-making. At crossroads moments, the choices leaders make disproportionately shape outcomes. Do companies retreat in the face of uncertainty—or do they double down on capability building? Do they treat AI as a cost lever—or as a growth engine? Do they wait for policy clarity—or help shape it? In previous eras, businesses that leaned into change—investing in new technologies, expanding into new markets, redesigning operating models—emerged as the architects of the next growth cycle. Those that clung to the old equilibrium often fell behind. Strategies tailored for a world of seamless globalization and abundant labor may not be fit for a world of demographic constraints, geopolitical complexity and groundbreaking technologies. Leadership today requires reallocating capital and rethinking talent models for a structurally different environment.

Choosing Plenty The opportunity to shape and power another century of growth and economic development like this last century is here. By 2100, even today’s poorest countries could be far more prosperous—if we upgrade the machine that drives growth. History shows that progress accelerates when firms invest boldly, when institutions enable markets to function effectively and when leaders choose to build rather than merely preserve. Business leaders have a pivotal role of allocating capital, scaling innovation, shaping workforces, and influencing policy debates. A century ago, leaders bet on electrification, highways, global trade and scientific management. Today, the bets are on AI, clean energy, human capital, resilient supply chains and institutional renewal. The story we tell ourselves matters. We can choose a narrative of scarcity—or a narrative of possibility. The next century of plenty will not arrive automatically. But with the right decisions at this crossroads, it is within reach. The progress machine is ours to upgrade. This article originally appeared in Forbes.Kweilin Ellingrud is a director of the McKinsey Global Institute and a senior partner at McKinsey & CompanyExplore a career with us