AngloGold Ashanti: Good With The Strategy, But Expensive When You Run The Numbers

Sidharth Kumar60 FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(11min)CommentsSummaryAngloGold Ashanti has outperformed peers with a 266% return and 8% dividend, driven by asset upgrades and a NYSE listing.AU’s current market cap of $45B implies a 1.3x P/NAV, significantly above the peer average, suggesting overvaluation.All reasonable assumptions around AU’s medium-term growth are already priced in; the stock offers limited upside unless the Nevada asset delivers along a best-case scenario.Hold AU for long-term exposure, but refrain from new buying at current levels unless seeking speculative gold leverage.THEGIFT777/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images AngloGold Ashanti (AU) is, in my opinion, one of the two competitors for the 'silver medal' in gold mining, alongside Newmont (NEM), and behind the industry leader Agnico (AEM). WhileThis article was written bySidharth Kumar60 FollowersFollowA lawyer by training, a regulator by temperament, and an investor for the fun of it. I have been an options trader for 12 years now, since I was an engineering undergrad. My trading drew my towards law - I was particularly fascinated by hard assets such as land and commodities, and the role regulations play in shaping such assets. I briefly worked as a transaction lawyer with a law firm in Mumbai, where I advised on investments by PE funds (Prosus, Gladebrook) and SWFs (mainly Singapore). I am now in the middle of a move to academia, with some time on my hands to explore and write on the markets. I am fascinated by the intersection of law, economics and the markets. I actively look for convexity and asymmetric bets, and regulatory alpha. My sectoral interests are in metals, power, infrastructure and real estate. My main research interest is macro-economic policy and its effect on financial flows.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.