2 Quantum Stocks to Avoid as 2026 Begins
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By Rich Smith – Jan 25, 2026 at 12:30AM ESTKey PointsRigetti and D-Wave stocks took off like wildfire in 2025. As 2026 begins, both stocks look very expensive.Rigetti stock in particular looks at severe risk of a near-term earnings miss.These 10 Stocks Could Mint the Next Wave of Millionaires ›NASDAQ: RGTIRigetti ComputingMarket Cap$7.7BToday's Changeangle-down(-5.95%) $1.49Current Price$23.48Price as of January 23, 2026 at 3:58 PM ETQuantum computing sounds cool. Losing money on overpriced quantum stocks isn't cool, however.In twin columns last month, I argued that two of the most popular quantum computing stocks, Rigetti Computing (RGTI 5.95%) and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS 6.56%), are both best avoided. As 2026 begins, I still think this today. Here's why. Image source: Getty Images. 1.
Rigetti Computing ExpandNASDAQ: RGTIRigetti ComputingToday's Change(-5.95%) $-1.49Current Price$23.48Key Data PointsMarket Cap$7.7BDay's Range$23.26 - $25.2052wk Range$6.86 - $58.15Volume997KAvg Vol43MGross Margin-6849.48% Rigetti calls itself a "pioneer in full-stack quantum computing," having developed, sold, and operated quantum computers for clients "since 2017." But as I argued last month, while "Rigetti's a real business, with real revenue. It's just not a business with a lot of revenue." Rigetti's not a big enough business that it actually needs to break out its revenue by business divisions. But if Rigetti had divisions, then selling quantum computers would be its biggest business (bigger than developing or operating systems, at least). Over the three quarters of 2025 reported so far, Rigetti generated $5.2 million in revenue, 39% less than it collected in the first three quarters of 2024. In October 2025, Rigetti announced two sales of quantum computing systems that, combined, would generate more revenue than it generated in all of the first three quarters of 2025 combined -- $5.7 million. Problem is, Rigetti won't book that revenue until the first half of 2026. Thus, when Rigetti finally gets around to reporting its Q4 2025 results in March, those sales won't be part of the results. They won't show up before Q1, or more likely Q2 of fiscal 2026, in fact. Long story short, when Rigetti reports its Q4 2025 numbers at the start of calendar year 2026, it's probably going to "miss" analyst forecasts for $7.6 million in revenue. With sales continuing to decline, it'll probably also miss forecasts for a halving of its net losses to $0.03 per share. Misses on both top and bottom lines won't be good news for Rigetti stock. You're better off avoiding it for now. 2. D-Wave Quantum ExpandNYSE: QBTSD-Wave QuantumToday's Change(-6.56%) $-1.80Current Price$25.63Key Data PointsMarket Cap$9.0BDay's Range$25.23 - $27.2052wk Range$4.45 - $46.75Volume38MAvg Vol38MGross Margin82.82% Somewhat larger than Rigetti in market capitalization, D-Wave Quantum (QBTS 6.56%) is still quite small in size as a business. After years of plugging away in the single-digit millions-of-dollars for revenue, D-Wave sales surged in 2025 -- but still totaled less than $22 million through the first three quarters of that year. D-Wave calls itself "a leader in the development and delivery of quantum computing systems, software, and services." The sizable improvement in sales this year -- more than a three-fold increase -- suggests the stock has some momentum behind it as well. That said, most analysts agree D-Wave probably ended 2025 with less than $26 million in total revenue, and no profit at all. That's not a lot of revenue to support the stock's ultra-optimistic $9.7 billion market capitalization -- especially given that Wall Street analysts don't forecast D-Wave turning profitable before 2030 at the earliest. Much like Rigetti, I view D-Wave as more hype than substance, and I think most of the stock's gains are attributable to momentum. Until I see D-Wave earn some real profits, D-Wave stock remains a sell for me.Read NextJan 24, 2026 •By Geoffrey SeilerHere's Why I Wouldn't Touch Rigetti Computing With a 10-Foot PoleJan 23, 2026 •By Johnny RicePrediction: Quantum Computing, IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave Will Crash In 2026. Here's What You Should Buy InsteadJan 20, 2026 •By Keith NoonanWhy Rigetti Computing Stock Soared 45.2% Last Year and Has Kept Gaining in 2026Jan 19, 2026 •By Keith NoonanRigetti Computing: Quantum Leader or Overhyped Stock?Jan 19, 2026 •By Rick OrfordCan Rigetti Become the Backbone of Quantum Computing?Jan 19, 2026 •By Keithen DruryIs This $8 Billion Quantum Computing Stock Too Cheap to Ignore Now?About the AuthorRich Smith is a contributing Motley Fool defense and stock market analyst covering publicly traded and emerging companies in defense, space, aerospace, and other sectors. Prior to The Motley Fool, Rich practiced international corporate law for Clifford Chance in Russia, and for the Russian-Ukrainian Legal Group in Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington, D.C. He holds a bachelor’s degree in international relations from the College of William & Mary, a law degree from the University of Baltimore, and a language certification from the International Institute of Russian Language & Culture in Tver, Russian Federation. The Globe and Mail once featured him as “one of the best stock pickers since 2009.”TMFDittyX@RichSmithFoolStocks MentionedRigetti ComputingNASDAQ: RGTI$23.48 (0.06%) $1.49D-Wave QuantumNYSE: QBTS$25.63 (0.07%) $1.80*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.