Why StubHub Plunged 35% in March

By Billy Duberstein – Apr 6, 2026 at 2:16PM ESTKey PointsStubHub missed expectations and showed revenue declines on its second-ever earnings report. However, there were legitimate headwinds, such as a lack of Taylor Swift and the event industry's transition to "all-in" ticket pricing.Down nearly 75% from its IPO, and StubHub shares look interesting at these levels. Shares of StubHub (STUB 3.34%) plunged 34.8% in March, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. StubHub delivered its second-ever earnings report after going public last September, but fourth-quarter results underwhelmed expectations. Moreover, management also hinted that 2026 might not see a significant upswing in the company's direct ticketing revenue as some might have expected; meanwhile, a portion of the secondary ticketing industry has also come under regulatory scrutiny in recent weeks. Still, after StubHub's stock has fallen from an IPO price of $23.50 to just above $6, shares look somewhat enticing at these low levels. ExpandNYSE: STUBStubHubToday's Change(-3.34%) $-0.21Current Price$6.22Key Data PointsMarket Cap$2.3BDay's Range$5.96 - $6.4352wk Range$5.85 - $27.89Volume3.6MAvg Vol4.2MGross Margin80.54% Investors are still getting a feel for StubHub's business model In the fourth quarter, StubHub saw a 15.8% decline in revenue to $449.2 million, with adjusted (non-GAAP) losses per share of ($0.05). Both figures missed expectations. On top of the missed expectations, management disclosed a few other tidbits that may have turned off investors. First, the company has been making efforts to expand from event ticket resales into direct ticketing. On the call, management said it is not going to rush this out but will instead invest in developing the tech tools that make it easier for rights holders to use StubHub's marketplace. So, management said not to expect material direct ticketing revenue this year. Additionally, management acknowledged some recent headlines regarding possible regulation of secondary-market "scalping," or buying tickets in bulk and reselling them at marked-up prices. Management stated that it believes about 10% of StubHub's gross merchandise volume (GMV) was comprised of these types of sellers. 10% doesn't sound like much, but it could have a significant near-term impact if regulators clamp down on digital "scalping" all at once. All this being said, things might not be as dire as they seem on the surface. Management noted that in the event space, there is significant quarter-to-quarter lumpiness in event timing, so it's best to look at full-year results. For the full year 2025, StubHub grew underlying GMV by 6%, and by an even more impressive 18% when factoring out the end of the Taylor Swift Eras tour in 2024. In addition, other one-time events skewed results. In May of 2025, the Federal Trade Commission mandated "all-in" pricing, requiring ticketing platforms to disclose the full ticket cost upfront rather than waiting until checkout to reveal the additional platform fee. In response, StubHub lowered its take-rate fees and increased its marketing spend to gain market share. But those lower fees led to a slight revenue decline, even though full-year GMV grew 6%. Image source: Getty Images. Looking ahead Management did give full-year 2026 guidance on the call that signaled better things ahead, forecasting 9% GMV growth and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) to nearly double from $232 million last year to $410 million in 2026 at the midpoint. StubHub's enterprise value, or its market cap plus net debt, has now fallen to around $3.3 billion. So, if management hits its 2026 guidance, shares now trade at just eight times forward EBITDA. That's a very reasonable valuation for a company growing around 10%. As such, StubHub stock may be worth a look down here, as it appears undervalued if it can, in fact, reverse last year's declines and return to growth. Read NextMar 9, 2026 •By Jeremy BowmanBest IPO Stocks to Buy in 2026: Latest Upcoming Stocks to WatchApr 6, 2026 •By Leo SunCould Acquiring the Satellite Communications Company Globalstar Send Amazon Stock Soaring?Apr 6, 2026 •By Daniel SparksNike Stock Is Back to Where It Was More Than a Decade Ago and Everyone Is Talking About It. Is This a Generational Buying Opportunity?Apr 6, 2026 •By David Jagielski, CPAThis Controversial Move Could Unlock More Growth for WalmartApr 6, 2026 •By Rick MunarrizRoku Stock: Next Stop, $120?Apr 6, 2026 •By Keith NoonanWhy Micron Stock Is Sinking TodayAbout the AuthorBilly Duberstein is a contributing Motley Fool technology analyst covering semiconductors, hardware, software, and AI, as well as consumer goods. Billy loves looking at the story behind investments from an interdisciplinary point of view, with an equal appetite for high-growth disruptors and beaten-down value names. He is also CEO of Stone Oak Capital, a registered investment adviser in California. He previously worked as a technology analyst for several hedge funds and as a research assistant at Wedbush Securities. Billy holds an MBA in finance from New York University and a bachelor’s degree in music from the University of Virginia.TMFStoneOakStocks MentionedStubHubNYSE: STUB$6.22(-3.42%)-$0.22*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.