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Why REITs Haven't Recovered Just Yet

Seeking Alpha
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⚡ Quantum Brief
REITs plunged nearly 40% in 2022 and remain below pre-crash highs despite partial recovery, with the VNQ index still lagging amid persistent macroeconomic pressures. Higher interest rates, sector oversupply (notably in office and retail), and record capital flows into AI-driven tech stocks diverted investor attention, delaying REIT rebound momentum. Key headwinds—rising rates and weak demand—are now shifting, as potential Fed rate cuts and stabilizing property markets could catalyze a breakout, per CFA analyst Jussi Askola’s March 2026 assessment. Office and retail sectors face structural challenges, but industrial and data center REITs show resilience, benefiting from e-commerce and AI infrastructure demand. Askola, a REIT specialist with hedge fund ties, highlights selective opportunities in high-yield portfolios, though warns recovery timing depends on monetary policy and sector-specific fundamentals.
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Jussi Askola, CFAInvesting Group LeaderFollow5ShareSavePlay(7min)Comments(3)SummaryREITs crashed nearly 40% in 2022 and, despite a strong rebound, still trade well below prior highs.Higher rates, oversupply in some sectors, and massive AI-driven flows into tech delayed the recovery.Now, those headwinds may be turning into tailwinds, setting up a potential breakout.High Yield Landlord members get exclusive access to our real-world portfolio. See all our investments here » DNY59/E+ via Getty Images A reader recently asked me, What is taking so long for REITs (VNQ) to recover from their bear market? It is an interesting question, and it is not the first time that I have received it. ManyThis article was written byJussi Askola, CFA68.97K FollowersFollowJussi Askola is the President of Leonberg Capital, a value-oriented investment boutique that consults hedge funds, family offices, and private equity firms on REIT investing. He has authored award-winning academic papers on REIT investing, has passed all three CFA exams, and has built relationships with many top REIT executives. He is the leader of the investing group High Yield Landlord, where he shares his real-money REIT portfolio and transactions in real-time. Features of the group include: three portfolios (core, retirement, international), buy/sell alerts, and a chat room with direct access to Jussi and his team of analysts to ask questions. Learn more.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of CPT either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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