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Why Occidental Petroleum Stock Rocketed Nearly 17% in February

newsfeedback@fool.com (Matt DiLallo)
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⚡ Quantum Brief
Occidental Petroleum’s stock surged 16.9% in February 2026, driven by rising oil prices and strong Q4 earnings, outperforming analyst expectations with $0.31 adjusted EPS—nearly double forecasts. Oil prices climbed in February, with WTI up 2.8% to $67/barrel and Brent rising 2.5% to $72.50, fueled by escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, which worsened in March after attacks on Persian Gulf tankers. The company’s Q4 production hit 1.5M barrels/day, exceeding guidance due to Permian Basin and Rockies performance, while capital spending was cut by $550M for 2026, boosting free cash flow. Higher oil prices and operational efficiency could generate over $1.2B in incremental free cash flow this year, funding debt reduction and shareholder returns if crude remains elevated. Geopolitical risks could push oil to $100/barrel, further lifting Occidental’s stock, but de-escalation may reverse gains, making the stock volatile despite its recent rally.
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By Matt DiLallo – Mar 6, 2026 at 9:47AM ESTKey PointsOil prices rallied last month amid rising tensions with Iran. Crude could continue to rally if Iran disrupts oil flows. Occidental Petroleum also reported strong fourth-quarter results last month. Shares of Occidental Petroleum (OXY +1.07%) jumped 16.9% in February. Rising oil prices helped fuel that rally. The oil and gas giant also reported strong fourth-quarter financial results last month. Here's a closer look at the catalysts fueling the oil stock's rally last month and whether Occidental is still worth buying after its surge. Image source: Getty Images. The oil rally continued Oil prices continued rising last month. WTI, the primary U.S. oil price benchmark, rose 2.8%, closing at just over $67 per barrel. That was its highest close since early August. Meanwhile, Brent oil (the global benchmark price) increased by 2.5% in February, settling at around $72.50 per barrel. Rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran fueled the rally in oil prices last month. Cruel prices have continued surging in early March after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran, which retaliated by attacking oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. WTI is up another 10% in March to more than $73 per barrel, while Brent has surged nearly 15% to over $83 per barrel. ExpandNYSE: OXYOccidental PetroleumToday's Change(1.07%) $0.57Current Price$53.81Key Data PointsMarket Cap$53BDay's Range$53.30 - $55.1752wk Range$34.78 - $56.34Volume846KAvg Vol12MGross Margin31.94%Dividend Yield1.80% Higher oil prices enable oil companies to earn more money from their production. With crude prices continuing to rally, Occidental's stock price has already risen another 4% in early March. Operating with excellence Rising oil prices weren't the only catalyst fueling the rally in Occidental Petroleum's share price last month. The company also reported strong fourth-quarter results in February despite the impact of lower oil prices throughout the period. Occidental Petroleum posted $0.31 per share of adjusted earnings, nearly double the consensus estimate of $0.17 per share. CEO Vicki Hollob highlighted the main factor fueling the company's better-than-expected results in the earnings press release. She stated, "Our emphasis on operational excellence and cost efficiency drove meaningful production and operating expense outperformance during the fourth quarter." The company produced an average of nearly 1.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day during the period, exceeding the high end of its guidance, driven by strong well performance in the Permian Basin and the Rockies. The oil company expects to become an even more efficient producer this year. It anticipates capital spending of $5.5 billion to $5.9 billion, a $550 million reduction from last year at the midpoint. This capital efficiency and other catalysts position Occidental to generate over $1.2 billion in incremental free cash flow this year at the same average oil price as last year. However, with crude prices surging, it should produce an even bigger gusher of additional free cash flow, which it can use to further strengthen its balance sheet and return additional capital to shareholders. Shares could go either way Shares of Occidental Petroleum have surged over the past month, largely due to higher oil prices. The uptick in crude prices will enable the company to generate even more free cash flow this year. Oil prices could have further to run if the war disrupts oil flows out of the Middle East, which would likely continue to drive up Occidental's stock price. However, a de-escalation of tensions would likely cause crude prices (and Occidental's stock) to give back some of their gains. Given this near-term uncertainty, investors would need to be very bullish about oil prices before they buy the energy stock following its recent surge.Read NextMar 2, 2026 •By Eric VolkmanWhy Occidental Petroleum Stock Jumped on MondayMar 2, 2026 •By Matt DiLalloAnalysts Predict The Iran Conflict Could Drive Oil to $100 a Barrel. Here's Why it Could be a Short Stay.Mar 1, 2026 •By Brett Schafer2 No-Brainer Energy Stocks to Buy Right NowMar 1, 2026 •By Courtney CarlsenOccidental Petroleum: Buy, Sell, or Hold?Feb 26, 2026 •By Reuben Gregg BrewerOccidental Petroleum Stock Rocketed More Than 10% in January (but the Big Move Came in February)Feb 20, 2026 •By Matt DiLalloHow This Buzzword Helped Occidental Petroleum Overcome Lower Oil Prices to Deliver Strong Fourth-Quarter ResultsAbout the AuthorMatt DiLallo has been a contributing Motley Fool stock market analyst specializing in covering dividend-paying companies, particularly in the energy and REIT sectors, since 2012. He also covers pre-IPO companies, ETFs, and other investing topics. He holds an MBA from Liberty University.TMFmd19X@MatthewDiLalloStocks MentionedOccidental PetroleumNYSE: OXY$53.81(+1.07%)+$0.57*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

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