Why Moderna Stock Just Popped

By Rich Smith – Feb 18, 2026 at 1:15PM ESTKey PointsThe FDA refused last week to consider Moderna's application to sell a flu vaccine in 2026-2027.Today, the FDA changed its mind. We’re bullish on these 10 stocks ›NASDAQ: MRNAModernaMarket Cap$17BToday's Changeangle-down(4.78%) $2.10Current Price$46.03Price as of February 18, 2026 at 1:48 PM ETSo the FDA will consider Moderna's flu vaccine application after all. Does this make Moderna stock a buy?Vaccine specialist Moderna (MRNA +4.78%) stock soared 5.5% through 12:55 p.m. ET Wednesday after The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration will accept (note: "accept," but not automatically "approve") Moderna's application to sell a new seasonal flu shot good for the 2026-2027 flu season. Image source: Getty Images. Moderna vs. the flu The FDA had previously rejected Moderna's application, refusing even to review it after concluding Moderna hadn't done sufficient safety testing. Now, Moderna is promising to do additional testing to confirm it's safe for elderly patients to take -- and it seems that's good enough for the FDA. Moderna expects the FDA to complete its review by August and, if the vaccine (called mRNA-1010) is approved, it will be ready to hit the market in time for the next flu season. Approval isn't certain, however. FDA Commissioner Marty Makary is quoted saying the FDA is no longer "rubber-stamping" applications. But if the FDA does approve the vaccine, well, Fortune Business Insights puts the global flu vaccine market at $9.2 billion annually, so this is a big opportunity for Moderna. ExpandNASDAQ: MRNAModernaToday's Change(4.78%) $2.10Current Price$46.03Key Data PointsMarket Cap$17BDay's Range$45.66 - $47.6852wk Range$22.28 - $55.20Volume395KAvg Vol12MGross Margin55.35% Is Moderna stock a buy? So you can see why investors are excited. Still, while this is good news for Moderna, it doesn't necessarily make Moderna stock a buy. Despite being valued at $18 billion in market capitalization after today's run-up, Moderna stock hasn't earned a profit since 2022. The company reported $2.8 billion in losses last year, and $2.1 billion in cash burn.

Most Wall Street analysts who follow the stock predict it will be 2029 before Moderna turns profitable again -- and 2030 before it generates positive free cash flow. Seems to me, the best way to play today's news might be to sell into the rally.Read NextFeb 12, 2026 •By Adria CiminoModerna: Stock to Avoid or Bad News Buy?Feb 9, 2026 •By Prosper Junior BakinyShould You Buy Moderna Before Feb. 13?Jan 28, 2026 •By Prosper Junior BakinyThis Stock Is Already Up 58% This Year. Is It a Buy?Jan 21, 2026 •By Joe TenebrusoWhy Moderna Stock Surged TodayDec 19, 2025 •By Adria CiminoDown 80%, Should You Buy the Dip on Moderna?Oct 22, 2025 •By Prosper Junior BakinyPrediction: Moderna Will Soar Over the Next 5 Years. Here's 1 Reason Why.About the AuthorRich Smith is a contributing Motley Fool defense and stock market analyst covering publicly traded and emerging companies in defense, space, aerospace, and other sectors. Prior to The Motley Fool, Rich practiced international corporate law for Clifford Chance in Russia, and for the Russian-Ukrainian Legal Group in Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington, D.C. He holds a bachelor’s degree in international relations from the College of William & Mary, a law degree from the University of Baltimore, and a language certification from the International Institute of Russian Language & Culture in Tver, Russian Federation. The Globe and Mail once featured him as “one of the best stock pickers since 2009.”TMFDittyX@RichSmithFoolStocks MentionedModernaNASDAQ: MRNA$46.03 (+4.78%) $+2.10*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.