What's Wrong With UnitedHealth Stock?

By Matthew Benjamin – Feb 21, 2026 at 12:37PM ESTKey PointsThe health insurer missed revenue expectations in the fourth quarter.Plus, management gave a soft outlook for full-year 2026 revenue.The insurance industry also got bad news on Medicare Advantage.We’re bullish on these 10 stocks ›NYSE: UNHUnitedHealth GroupMarket Cap$263BToday's Changeangle-down(0.06%) $0.16Current Price$290.09Price as of February 20, 2026 at 3:58 PM ETA soft revenue outlook coupled with bad news on Medicare is hurting the stock.Many stocks in the healthcare sector are up strongly in 2026. But not health insurance giant UnitedHealth Group (UNH +0.06%). The stock is down almost 13% this year, far underperforming both the S&P 500 healthcare sector (up 1.7% this year) and the broader S&P 500 (up 0.6%). What's going on? Well, the company announced fourth-quarter results on Jan. 27, and investors were not impressed. UnitedHealth beat Wall Street's expectation on earnings by a penny, which is not overly impressive. Worse, revenue of $113.2 billion came in under the consensus analyst forecast of $113.8 billion, never a good sign. Even worse for the share price, management's outlook for full-year 2026 revenue was unexpectedly low. The company said it expects revenue of $439 billion, about $15 billion lower than Wall Street was expecting. If that comes to pass, it will be the company's first annual revenue contraction in more than 30 years. The share price plummeted 20% that day. ExpandNYSE: UNHUnitedHealth GroupToday's Change(0.06%) $0.16Current Price$290.09Key Data PointsMarket Cap$263BDay's Range$285.65 - $290.7952wk Range$234.60 - $606.36Volume262KAvg Vol8.7MDividend Yield3.01% Disappointing news on Medicare Advantage But that's not all. On the very same day, the Trump administration proposed keeping federal payments to Medicare Advantage plans basically flat -- with an increase in payment rates of less than 0.1% -- in 2027, which is far less of an increase than what analysts and insurers expected. Industry analysts expected that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, which sets the rate, would propose an increase of between 4% and 6% for the year. Medicare Advantage, or privately run health insurance plans contracted by Medicare, is critical to UnitedHealth's business. In fact, the company is the largest provider of Advantage plans in the U.S., with a market share of 29%. At the end of 2025, the company served almost 9.4 million people through these plans. So when the federal government limits growth for Advantage plans, it has a huge negative impact on Advantage plan providers. Image source: Getty Images. In fact, the entire health insurance sector got hit by the news on Advantage payments. And it looks a lot like a government effort to end certain billing practices by Advantage providers. It's somewhat surprising, as Wall Street analysts expected the Trump administration to be friendlier to health insurers. Instead, President Donald Trump has called the insurers "big, fat, rich," and seems to be including them among companies that should charge consumers less. For UnitedHealth, the news on Medicare Advantage comes at a difficult time, when the revenue outlook already looks to be softening. So it was all bad news for UnitedHealth in recent months; thus, the stock slide. I don't expect a major improvement in the outlook anytime soon.Read NextFeb 18, 2026 •By Stefon WaltersWhat Is One of the Best Healthcare Stocks to Own for the Next 10 Years?Feb 18, 2026 •By Adria CiminoUnitedHealth Group Faces New Challenges -- What Investors Need to KnowFeb 18, 2026 •By Keith SpeightsIs a Dividend Cut Coming for UnitedHealth Stock?Feb 11, 2026 •By Bryan White3 Dividend Stocks to Buy Right Now for Income and UpsideFeb 9, 2026 •By David Jagielski, CPAUnitedHealth Stock: Is the Market Overreacting to Lower-Than-Expected Medicare Rates?Feb 4, 2026 •By David Jagielski, CPAIs a Dividend Cut Coming for UnitedHealth Stock?About the AuthorMatthew Benjamin is a contributing Motley Fool stock market and investing analyst covering publicly-traded companies across all sectors. Prior to The Motley Fool, Matt was a senior markets expert at an investing newsletter in Baltimore, an editorial consultant to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and an economics correspondent at Bloomberg News. He holds a B.A. from Bucknell University and an M.A. from New York University. Fun fact: Matt has met every Federal Reserve Chair from Paul Volcker through Jerome Powell.TMFMbenjamin68Stocks MentionedUnitedHealth GroupNYSE: UNH$290.00 (+0.02%) $+0.07S&P 500 IndexSNPINDEX: ^GSPC$6909.51 (+0.69%) $+47.62*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.