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What Warren Buffett Saw In Occidental Petroleum -- And Why The Thesis Still Holds

Seeking Alpha
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⚡ Quantum Brief
Berkshire Hathaway-backed Occidental Petroleum leverages proprietary CO₂-enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technology, giving it a competitive edge in the Permian Basin as a top-tier operator. The company’s balance sheet strengthened after divesting OxyChem, enabling projected $5.30/share owner earnings at $75/barrel oil, reflecting disciplined asset focus. Intrinsic value is estimated at $40–$45/share without aggressive oil price assumptions, with additional upside potential from EOR advancements and future direct air capture (DAC) carbon credit sales. Current share prices, driven by geopolitical oil spikes, exceed fundamentals, prompting the analyst to await a pullback below $50 before considering entry. The long-term thesis hinges on Occidental’s technical moat, financial prudence, and carbon transition opportunities, aligning with Buffett’s value-driven investment strategy.
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Wade Capital443 FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(12min)CommentsSummaryOccidental Petroleum is a Permian-focused E&P with the backing of Berkshire Hathaway and proprietary CO2-enhanced oil recovery technology.OXY’s streamlined balance sheet post-OxyChem divestiture and focused Permian asset base position it to generate $5.30/share owner earnings at $75/barrel oil.Intrinsic value is estimated at $40-$45/share, not requiring bullish commodity assumptions, and embeds upside from EOR advances and future DAC carbon credit sales.I remain on the sidelines, awaiting a pullback below $50, as current prices reflect war-driven oil spikes rather than long-term fundamentals. guvendemir/iStock via Getty Images Investment Thesis Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is a best-in-class Permian operator whose proprietary CO2 enhanced oil recovery techniques offer a durable technical edge over peers. The company's recently streamlined balance sheet following the OxyChemThis article was written byWade Capital443 FollowersFollowI manage a handful of portfolios, all of which have outperformed the S&P 500 index since inception in 2020. I like to evaluate companies as a business - not a stock ticker - and invest when I judge the market to have significantly mispriced them. I have a degree in Engineering and an MBA, but I've learned the most from reading and listening to investors I admire, including Warren Buffet (obviously), Charlie Munger, Phil Fisher and Nick Sleep.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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