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What if Trump actually wanted this outcome in Hormuz all along?

Brett Arends
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2 min read
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⚡ Quantum Brief
A Cambridge professor argues Trump’s second term deliberately reshaped global energy geopolitics, with the Hormuz crisis as a calculated move rather than a blunder. The conflict’s escalation aligns with a broader strategy to disrupt oil flows and redefine power dynamics. The Iran war’s humanitarian toll includes 165 Iranian schoolgirls allegedly killed by a U.S. missile, amplifying global criticism. Economic fallout includes oil hitting $100 per barrel and gasoline nearing $4.20 per gallon nationwide. Tehran now controls the Strait of Hormuz and 20% of global oil supply, an ironic outcome given U.S. intervention. Critics claim Trump either misjudged the situation or was influenced by Israel’s Netanyahu. The crisis contradicts conventional wisdom, suggesting Trump’s actions may have been strategic despite appearances. Energy markets and geopolitical leverage appear central to the administration’s long-term goals. Analysts question whether the chaos serves hidden objectives, such as weakening Iran’s economy while forcing global reliance on alternative energy sources or U.S. allies.
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What if Trump actually wanted this outcome in Hormuz all along?Since the start of the Iran war, the conventional wisdom has been that the whole thing is a hot mess. The argument is that President Trump either blundered into a strategic situation he didn’t understand, or was suckered into it by Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with disastrous consequences. These range from the humanitarian — starting with the killing of around 165 Iranian schoolgirls, apparently by a U.S. missile — to the economic and even geopolitical. Oil CL00 BRN00 is up to $100 a barrel, gasoline is nearly $4.20 a gallon nationally, and — irony of ironies — the enemy regime in Tehran has been left with control of the Strait of Hormuz and about 20% of the world’s oil supply.About the AuthorBrett Arends is an award-winning financial writer with many years experience writing about markets, economics and personal finance. He has received an individual award from the Society of American Business Editors and Writers for his financial writing, and was part of the Boston Herald team that won two others. He has worked as an analyst at McKinsey Co., and is a Chartered Financial Consultant. His latest book, "Storm Proof Your Money", was published by John Wiley Co.A Dow Jones CompanyCopyright © 2026 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights reserved.

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