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What Our New Energy Price Scenarios Mean For Markets

Seeking Alpha
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⚡ Quantum Brief
ING economists project Fed rate cuts in 2026 amid worsening global growth, expecting lower USD and EUR rates by year-end. The ECB is unlikely to raise rates despite internal debate, maintaining its current stance in the baseline scenario. EUR/USD is forecast to rebound to 1.20 this year as economic conditions shift and monetary policies diverge. Geopolitical risks, including the ongoing Middle East conflict, remain a key factor influencing oil, interest rate, and FX volatility. Weaker growth outlooks drive expectations for softer currency and rate environments, pressuring central banks to adjust policies.
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ING Economic and Financial Analysis5.24K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(10min)Comment(1)SummaryOur baseline continues to assume rate cuts by the Fed and no hikes by the ECB.USD and EUR rates could end the year lower as the growth outlook worsens, and we still expect a return to 1.20 in EUR/USD this year.In our new base case scenario, we expect the ECB to hold a heated debate on raising rates but think it will eventually decide to stay on hold. Galeanu Mihai/iStock via Getty Images By Carsten Brzeski, James Knightley, Padhraic Garvey, CFA, Benjamin Schroeder, Michiel Tukker, Francesco Pesole and James Smith New scenarios for oil, interest rates and FX The war in the Middle East continues, and the StraitThis article was written byING Economic and Financial Analysis5.24K FollowersFollowFrom Trump to trade, FX to Brexit, ING’s global economists have it covered. Go to ING.com/THINK to stay a step ahead. We’re sorry we can’t reply to individuals' comments.Content disclaimer: The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument.This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. For our full disclaimer please click here.

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