Weekly Indicators: The Oil Shock Broadens And Deepens

New Deal Democrat4.91K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(31min)Comments(2)SummaryYield curve spreads have turned positive, but this results from rising bond yields, which is a negative for long leading indicators. Short leading indicators are pressured by the Iran war-driven surge in oil and gas prices, pushing stock prices to new 3-month lows and commodities higher. Coincident indicators show robust consumer spending, yet tax withholding is now lagging YoY wage growth and inflation, signaling potential weakness. I expect the Iran war's impact to increasingly appear in economic data, with consumer spending trends being a crucial metric to monitor. Rasi Bhadramani/iStock via Getty Images Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well beforeThis article was written byNew Deal Democrat4.91K FollowersFollowNew Deal democrat As a professional who started an individual investor for almost 30 yeas ago, I quickly focused on economic cycles and the order in which they typically proceed. I have been writing about the economy for nearly 15 of those years, developing several alternate systems that include mid-cycle, long leading, short leading, coincident, lagging and long lagging indicators. I also focus particularly on their effects on average working and middle class Americans.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.