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Week Ahead: SCOTUS Decision On Tariffs? 8 Fed Officials Speak As The Market Discounts Almost 65 Bp Of Cuts This Year

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⚡ Quantum Brief
Japan’s LDP victory defied market expectations as the yen and JGBs rallied instead of selling off, signaling potential unwinding of carry trades leveraging the currency. Chinese officials’ reported push to de-risk from US Treasuries weakened the dollar, amplifying concerns over the "debasement trade" and global capital flows. Eurozone Q4 2025 growth matched Q3 at 0.3% QoQ, with upcoming industrial and construction data unlikely to shift the stagnant economic narrative. Sterling stabilized near $1.37 after a brief February rally, reflecting cautious optimism amid mixed UK economic signals and BoE policy uncertainty. The Australian dollar’s outlook hinges on tighter monetary policy prospects, commodity demand, and its role as a China-linked G10 proxy.
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Marc Chandler17.13K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(20min)CommentsSummaryLast week began with the LDP's stunning victory in Japan. However, rather than sell-off as the market expected, the yen and JGBs rallied.The market remains sensitive to any confirmation of the so-called debasement trade. News that Chinese officials are encouraging de-risking from US Treasuries hit the dollar hard.With the eurozone's initial estimate of 0.3% quarter-over-quarter growth in Q4 25, matching the Q3 pace, the remaining December data, which this week includes industrial output, the current account, and construction output, is of passing interest.After jumping from about $1.35 to $1.37 in two sessions (February 6 and February 9), sterling traded mostly sideways.The bull case for the Australian dollar is predicated on the prospects of tighter monetary policy, as a G10 proxy for China, and its exposure to commodities, especially the metals. DNY59/iStock via Getty Images Last week began with the LDP's stunning victory in Japan. However, rather than sell-off as the market expected, the yen and JGBs rallied. It appears that the yen's use as a levered funding leg for carry trades hadThis article was written byMarc Chandler17.13K FollowersFollowMarc Chandler has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for 25 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. A prolific writer and speaker he appears regularly on CNBC and has spoken for the Foreign Policy Association. In addition to being quoted in the financial press daily, Chandler has been published in the Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, and the Washington Post. In 2009 Chandler was named a Business Visionary by Forbes. Marc's commentary can be found at his blog (www.marctomarket.com) and twitter www.twitter.com/marcmakingsense

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