Wall Street Is Wrong About Oracle -- This $553 Billion Backlog Tells a Different Story for 2026

By Reuben Gregg Brewer – Apr 5, 2026 at 5:15AM ESTKey PointsOracle's stock price has fallen more than 50% in just six months.The company's massive backlog suggests the future could still be very bright.Wall Street is clearly flashing warning signs about technology giant Oracle (ORCL +0.79%). The stock has lost more than half of its value in just six months. And yet, the company's fiscal third quarter 2026 earnings highlighted a massive backlog of $553 billion. Here's why more aggressive investors may want to stay positive about Oracle's future. Oracle has a lot of work to do Oracle is helping to build out the infrastructure needed to support artificial intelligence (AI). Much of the $553 billion backlog (which the company calls remaining performance obligations) relates to the construction of data centers that house AI computers. These aren't optional assets; AI has to live somewhere. Image source: Getty Images. Oracle has positioned itself as a vital "picks-and-shovels" provider to the companies that want to use AI. In fact, the company's backlog was up 325% year over year, showing the immense demand for AI infrastructure. Demand for AI infrastructure is so strong that management expects "to comfortably meet and likely exceed our revenue growth rate forecast for FY27 and beyond." Wall Street's deeply negative view of Oracle stock doesn't line up with that outlook, noting that the company's adjusted earnings rose 21% year over year in the fiscal third quarter. There are risks to consider with Oracle If everything works out as well as Oracle hopes, it is highly likely that Wall Street's negative view of the stock is dead wrong. And the massive $553 billion backlog hints at this. If you are an aggressive investor, it might be worth digging into Oracle's growth story. ExpandNYSE: ORCLOracleToday's Change(0.79%) $1.15Current Price$146.38Key Data PointsMarket Cap$421BDay's Range$140.30 - $146.4452wk Range$118.86 - $345.72Volume14MAvg Vol27MGross Margin64.30%Dividend Yield1.37% The problem with this technology company's story lies in its balance sheet. That's where you will notice that Oracle's debt load has increased dramatically, with long-term debt rising by nearly 50% in less than a year. Management is very clear that building data centers requires huge upfront costs. That said, the company also appears aware of the issue, because it is adjusting its approach to include more pre-funding from customers. If customers start canceling orders for any reason, however, Oracle's material levels of debt could become a worrying headwind. In the end, Oracle is clearly making a sizable bet on AI infrastructure. Only more aggressive investors should buy the stock. However, if you believe that AI is a technology that will change the world, the sell-off in Oracle's stock could be your entry point into a well-respected AI "picks-and-shovels" play in 2026.Read NextApr 2, 2026 •By Anthony Di PizioOracle Stock Hasn't Been This Cheap in 3 Years -- But Is It a Buy Right Now?Mar 31, 2026 •By Jeremy BowmanOracle's Layoffs Raise a Hard Question: Is the AI Pivot Worth the Human Cost?Mar 31, 2026 •By Bram BerkowitzIf This Wall Street Analyst Is Correct, This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Data Center Stock Will Join Nvidia, Apple, and Meta in the $1 Trillion ClubMar 30, 2026 •By Jack CaporalThe AI Stocks Hedge Funds Love the MostMar 26, 2026 •By Adria CiminoThis Decision in 2019 Was Oracle's Smartest Move -- and It May Be the Ticket to Explosive AI Growth.Mar 22, 2026 •By James BrumleyPrediction: The "Trough of Disillusionment" Will Create the Best Buying Opportunity for Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks in 2026About the AuthorReuben Gregg Brewer is a contributing Motley Fool stock market analyst covering energy, utilities, REITs, and consumer staples. He is the former director of research at Value Line Publishing, where he rose from mutual fund analyst to equity analyst before leading all research operations. Reuben holds a bachelor’s degree in psychology from SUNY Purchase, a master’s in social work from Columbia University, and an MBA from Regis University. He has been featured as a financial expert on CNBC and in the Financial Times, Barron’s, and InvestmentNews.TMFReubenGBrewerStocks MentionedOracleNYSE: ORCL$146.38(+0.79%)+$1.15*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.