Wall Street Breakfast Podcast: War Shock Sends Oil Up

Wall Street Breakfast5.74M FollowersSubscribe5ShareSaveCommentsSummaryCrude oil prices surged 8% to multiyear highs as U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy chokepoint.Citigroup expects Brent to trade $80–$90 near-term if tensions ease quickly; a prolonged conflict could drive prices higher.Gold spiked above $5,400, supported by safe-haven demand, central bank buying, and expectations for policy easing, with downside seen as limited.FedEx suspended services in five Gulf countries due to regional airspace closures, with broader logistics and airline sectors facing operational and financial shocks. 200mm/iStock via Getty Images Listen below or on the go via Apple Podcasts and Spotify Oil jumps to multiyear high as Hormuz disruption shakes global supply. (00:13) Gold rises above $5,400 as U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict escalates. (01:20) US-Israel war disrupts Gulf logistics; FedEx (FDX) suspends services in five countries. (02:11) This is an abridged transcript. Crude prices have posted their biggest surge in four years after the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy supplies. As of the time of this recording, Brent crude (CO1:COM) is up 8% at nearly $79 a barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (CL1:COM) is up more than 7% at $72. Analysts at Citigroup said they expect Brent to trade between $80 and $90 in the near term, assuming either a leadership shift in Iran or a relatively swift de-escalation within a week or two. A prolonged conflict, however, could push prices higher. Iran produces about 3.3 million barrels per day, roughly 3% of global output, but its strategic position along the Strait of Hormuz gives it outsized influence over supply flows to major importers such as China, India and Japan. For now, traders are focused on whether shipping resumes normally, or whether the conflict triggers a sustained oil shock with broader economic consequences. Gold prices crossed $5,400 overnight as safe-haven demand mounted in the wake of the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. As of the time of this recording, Spot gold (XAUUSD:CUR) is up 2.2% at $5,395 after reaching a four-week high overnight. Gold has gained about 25% YTD and 87% over the past year. ING strategists noted that the gold market remains underpinned by strong central bank buying and expectations of policy easing later this year. They added, "Even if tensions stabilize, these structural drivers suggest downside should be limited, with any pullbacks likely to be shallow rather than trend-reversing." Spot silver (XAGUSD:CUR) is also on the rise: +1.8% at $95.47. FedEx (FDX) on Monday said that pickup and delivery services across Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates have been temporarily suspended until further notice, warning that shipments to and from other markets in the region could also face longer transit times amid the disruption. "In light of recent airspace closures throughout the Middle East, flights to and from Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have been suspended," the company said in a status update. "We are closely monitoring the situation and will resume services as soon as it is safe to do so." Potentially relevant logistics companies amid disruption from the Middle East situation include UPS (UPS), DHL Group, XPO (XPO), GXO Logistics (GXO), Expeditors International (EXPD), C.H. Robinson (CHRW), and J.B. Hunt (JBHT). FDX is down 2.6% premarket. What’s Trending on Seeking Alpha Airline stocks dive: AAL, UAL, DAL, ALK fall as Middle East strikes ground flights Khamenei betting frenzy triggers backlash, scrutiny of prediction markets Quant check: Defense stocks volatile on rising U.S.-Iran tensions Catalyst watch: The Department of Justice antitrust trial against Live Nation–Ticketmaster (LYV) will take place. The three-day Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference in San Francisco will begin. Some of the notable companies participating include Walmart (WMT), Cisco (CSCO), Disney (DIS), Comcast (CMCSA), Expedia (EXPE), Amdocs (DOX), Autodesk (ADSK), NetApp (NTAP), and Carvana (CVNA).

The Mobile World Congress Barcelona event will begin. Notable companies participating include Cisco (CSCO), Qualcomm (QCOM), AT&T (T), and SpaceX (SPACE). DraftKings (DKNG) will host a virtual Investor Day. Management is expected to share views on the opportunity ahead, outline the company’s sustainable advantages, and discuss financial framework and capital allocation priorities. Dow, S&P and Nasdaq futures are deeply in the red, each declining by greater than 1%. Bitcoin is up 0.6% at $66,000. The FTSE 100 is down 0.7% and the DAX is down 1.5%. The biggest movers for the day premarket: Shares of American Airlines (AAL), United Airlines (UAL), and Alaska Air Group (ALK) dropped more than 5%, while Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY) and Joby Aviation (JOBY) fell about 4%, with thousands of flights across the Middle East affected, according to flight-tracking data from FlightAware. Economic calendar: 9:45 am PMI Manufacturing Final 10:00 am ISM Manufacturing Index This article was written byWall Street Breakfast5.74M FollowersSubscribeWall Street Breakfast, Seeking Alpha's flagship daily business newsletter, is a one-page summary that gives you a rapid overview of the day's key financial news. It is designed for easy readability on the site or by email (including mobile devices) and is published before 7:30 AM ET every market day.

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