Is the Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund ETF a Buy Now?

By Dave Kovaleski – Mar 23, 2026 at 1:01PM ESTKey PointsThe Vanguard S&P 500 ETF is the largest ETF in the world. Several leading investment managers predict much lower returns for large-caps over the next decade, compared to the last 10 years. Is the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF a good buy right now?When Vanguard offered up its capital markets outlook for 2026 and beyond late last year, it wasnʻt particularly bullish. Over the next five to 10 years, Vanguard predicts U.S. equity annual returns of 4% to 5% with the muted outlook "nearly singlehandedly driven by our risk-return assessment of large-cap technology companies." In short, its major concerns are overvalued large tech stocks and "creative destruction from new entrants into the sector, which erodes aggregate profitability." It does see better returns for value, small-caps, international, and emerging markets stocks as investors rotate away from U.S. large-caps. So, if this projection plays out, what does that mean for the S&P 500 over the next five to 10 years? More specifically, what does it mean for the largest ETF in the world, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO +1.63%)? Image source: Getty Images. Muted returns for large caps are expected over the next 10 years While the outlook by Vanguard calls for muted returns, it is just one viewpoint -- although an extremely important and knowledgeable one. However, other major players apparently agree. Goldman Sachs, back in late 2024, said the next 10 years would be a "dead decade" with 3% annual returns. Charles Schwab forecasts 5.9% annual returns for U.S. large caps over the next 10 years, with international and emerging markets outperforming. ExpandNYSEMKT: VOOVanguard S&P 500 ETFToday's Change(1.63%) $9.74Current Price$607.68Key Data PointsDay's Range$603.11 - $611.0152wk Range$442.80 - $641.81Volume437K Similarly, JPMorgan Chase calls for average annual returns of 6.7% for large caps over the next 10 years, with high valuations acting as a drag. It also sees international and emerging market stock outperformance. These projected returns would be about half, or less than half, compared to the 12.9% average annual return for the S&P 500 over the past 10 years from Jan. 1, 2026, to Dec. 31, 2025. They would be more in line with the roughly 5% average annual return the S&P 500 saw from the 10-year period from Jan. 1, 2006, to Dec. 31, 2015. Should you buy the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF right now? On the one hand, an ETF that tracks the 500 largest companies trading in the U.S. should be a staple of any portfolio, whether it's the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY +1.52%), or the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVW +1.82%). On the other hand, investors may want to temper their expectations, as many of the leading investment houses see lower returns for U.S. large caps over the long term. A good strategy would be to keep, or add if you donʻt have it, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, or one similar, to your portfolio. But it would also be smart to diversify, perhaps more so than in the past, with a leading value ETF, as well as international and emerging market ETFs.Read NextMar 23, 2026 •By Geoffrey SeilerThe Stock Market's Fear Index Is Up. Here's Why Smart Investors Aren't Selling.Mar 22, 2026 •By David DierkingIs the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF the Smartest Investment You Can Make Before March Ends?Mar 20, 2026 •By Neil PatelHere's the Smartest Way to Invest in the S&P 500 in MarchMar 19, 2026 •By Anthony Di PizioShould You Buy the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF After the Recent Stock Market Sell-Off? History Offers a Crystal-Clear Answer.Mar 18, 2026 •By Geoffrey SeilerPrediction Markets Are Flashing Recession Warnings.

But Should Investors Actually Listen?Mar 18, 2026 •By Todd ShriberWhy Your S&P 500 ETF Could Rapidly Include SpaceXAbout the AuthorDave mainly covers financials, consumer goods, and technology stocks and ETFs. He wrote for the Fool from 2019-2023 and rejoined the Fool in 2026. In the past he's covered mutual funds and institutional investments for Pensions & Investments, personal finance for S&P, money markets and bonds for Crane Data, and stocks for ValueWalk.TMFdkovaleskiStocks MentionedVanguard S&P 500 ETFNYSEMKT: VOO$607.81(+1.65%)+$9.87SPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustNYSEMKT: SPY$659.14(+1.63%)+$10.57iShares Trust - iShares S&P 500 Growth ETFNYSEMKT: IVW$116.21(+1.82%)+$2.08*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.